Navigating through the Syrian Complexity Transcript

Disclaimer: This transcript is an edited version version of a transcript created using AI technology and may not reflect 100% accuracy.

The video can be found here.

Sarah: Good afternoon and welcome to a special EMET webinar dealing with the complex situation in Syria. As you are aware, Sunni rebels have taken Aleppo, seized control of Bashar Assad’s Palace, and taken control over the Assad stronghold of Hama. Today, we are very fortunate to have Hazem Alghabra, a Syrian American diplomat with us. Hazem will provide us with a rare, inside look at the current situation in Syria. Hazem was born in Damascus, Syria. He is the founder and president of Frontiers Consultants, a Washington, D.C.-based consultancy firm providing public relations and crisis management solutions with a focus on the Middle East and the United States.

Prior to starting his own firm, Hazem held multiple positions with the US Department of State. There he served as Senior Advisor for Public Affairs at the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. Hazem provides daily insight and analysis on an array of television stations, including i24, Keshet, Al Arabiya, Sky News, BBC, and Asharq on Bloomberg. Hazem is also a North American partner for the Israel-based Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.

Hazem, some people have expressed the belief that the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group is a moderate and reasonable alternative to the Iranian and Russian-backed Assad regime. We are all aware that the Syrian regime has played a key role in facilitating the transfer of arms into Lebanon and in supporting Hezbollah. What are your views about the alternatives?

Hazem Alghabra: Sarah, thank you so much for having me. I apologize in advance because I will need to leave in 30 minutes. I have to do an i24 interview on the i24 Arabic stream right after this.

I want to start by giving people some background on the main factions fighting right now. I will discuss what they are fighting for and who is backing them. Technically, there are four main groups in the mix. The first group is the Syrian government backed forces, supported by the Russians and the Iranians. The second group is our Kurdish partners in the Northeast, backed by the United States. Then there are two distinct rebel elements moving southward from the city of Idlib. The first of these elements is HTS. HTS was previously known as al-Nusra, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda. The second rebel group is the Syrian National Army (SNA), previously known as the Free Syrian Army. The SNA is wholly backed by Turkey.

We are not exactly sure who is backing the HTS. We believe that Turkey is providing them some support. At the very least, Turkey is turning a blind eye to what they are doing. We believe the majority of their resources come from two main sources. As the de facto government in Idlib over the past seven years, they have collected taxes from the people there. Additionally, they have finance networks that have persisted since the 2011 Syrian war.

There are up to ten different factions involved in the current Syrian conflict, including some foreign countries. The situation is very complex. It is a problem of causality, rather than causation. Israel waged a very successful campaign against Iran and Iranian elements in Syria. Israel’s successes weakened their support for the Syrian regime. This provided an opening for HTS, SNA and others to attack the regime. As I mentioned, it is a situation of causality, not causation. Israel never intended for this to happen. There are so many factions on the ground in Syria that moving a single piece, causes other pieces to move. It is like playing chess with six different players on one board and it is not easy to predict the outcome. Israel had the obligation to deal with the Iranian threat coming from Syria. I would call what we are seeing in Syria now an indirect cause of Israel’s actions regarding Iran.

Let’s go back a few years. In 1971, Hafez al-Assad took over the country in a coup. In 1967, he was minister of defense when Israel defeated Syria. In 1971 he rewarded himself for his failure with a position upgrade. Syria was wholly dependent on the Soviet Union for weapons, ammunition and technology. Once the Soviet Union collapsed, Syria found itself without friends, and Assad pivoted toward Iran. Iran had resources, money and oil. Assad comes from the Alawite minority. Some believe this minority is an offshoot of the Shia sect of Islam while others contest that assertion. Irrespective, Syria’s relationship with Iran was different from the one it had with Russia. It was not an official global alliance. Iran provided support to Syria in exchange for Syrian support of Hezbollah and other Iranian interests in the region.

Many people consider 2011 as the year of the original uprising in Syria. However, there was an uprising in the early ’80s in the city of Hama. The regime quelled that uprising very violently but the concerns that precipitated the initial uprising persisted. The Arab Spring provided the opportunity for the reemergence of those concerns. The elements and ideology fueling concerns in Syria, paralleled those that propelled the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring presented an opportunity to change the equation in Syria.

For many years, the Alawites comprised the main component of the Syrian military. The Muslims in Aleppo and Damascus viewed themselves as aristocrats. They considered themselves superior to those serving in the military. They were doctors and merchants and they left the military to the Alawites. As a consequence, the Alawites easily became the ruling force in Syria at the time of the military coup in 2011. In hindsight, the Syrian Sunnis should have been engaged in the military which is an important aspect of their society.

As I mentioned, the Syrian uprising occurred in 2011. Iran came to assist the regime. Eventually, they deployed militias all across the country. However, the emergence of ISIS impacted Iranian support for Syria and Russia became involved. Russia has long sought a permanent presence on the Mediterranean. They had requested this from Hafez Assad for years. However, Assad, the father, was a smart guy. He did not want to upset the United States, especially in the midst of the Cold War. As such, he played it safe and never really yielded that base to Russia.

In exchange for the successful Russian intervention following the uprising, Russia finally received the base and the presence they had always wanted in Syria. Russia defeated the fighting elements in Syria. The Astana Process followed. Astana ostensibly aimed to end the armed conflict in Syria and convene a formal political negotiating process. Astana led to an agreement backed by Turkey, Russia and the Syrian government. Iran was involved as well. Fighters from across the country were disarmed and relocated to the city of Idlib in the northwest of Syria.

As mentioned, the agreement also outlined a political process to resolve the issues that had resulted in the armed conflict. The Syrian regime never actually engaged in that process. My own mother was part of the anti-Assad political opposition in the diaspora. She was one of the civil society representatives. She complained that the regime had no interest in a serious conversation with them. They went to Geneva or to Vienna to talk to the regime but the regime was not interested in a serious conversation with them. They are paying the price now. Even the US was interested in that political process. We always pushed for a political solution because we wanted to prevent the chaos we are seeing now. We do not like chaos. The US government does not like chaos. We are not set up for chaos. Unfortunately, that is where we are today.

The Syrian regime was dependent on the Soviet Union for many years and their military has not modernized since the mid ’80s. The army relied on conscription and everybody was legally required to serve. However, unlike Israel, the soldiers did not get paid or fed even though they served for up to 24 months. Under emergency law, some of these conscripts served for eight to 10 years with no relief. This law required them to serve indefinitely with practically no recompense. Army salaries ranged from around $5 a month for a regular soldier, to around $30 for a three-star general. The minimum cost of living in Syria right now is around $250 a month. Such a setup virtually required conscripts to engage in corruption. In addition to corruption, the Syrian army faced a lack of equipment and capabilities and zero morale.

On the other hand, they were propped up by Russian reconnaissance intelligence and air assets, as well as Iranian fighting elements on the ground. The removal of these two pillars of support, signals the end of the regime. Russia is obviously occupied in Ukraine. Hezbollah and the Iranian militias have been hammered by Israel and US forces. The regime currently has no support whatsoever, and the results are obvious.

HTS is the main fighting force right now. In answer to your question, it is important to remember who their leader is. He goes by the name Abu Mohammed al-Golan. His family originated from the Golan Heights, even though he grew up in Saudi Arabia. He moved to Syria with his dad at some point. In 2003, he moved to Iraq to fight the US forces as part of the Al-Qaeda elements there. He was arrested and jailed in Iraqi prisons for five years. After that, he returned to Syria. He was the envoy of al-Baghdadi, the head of ISIS. Eventually the two had a falling out. The rift resulted from leadership issues and not from ideological differences. Abu Mohammed’s real name is Ahmed Hussein al-Shara. He is not pro-Western. Also, the fact he is a descendant of a Golan family, creates some additional risk when it comes to his future interests. If he takes over the country, the situation will not be a great one.

The Syrian National Army is backed by Turkey. They are fighting the Kurds on behalf of Turkey. Additionally, they are also fighting the Syrian regime forces. I just hung up the phone with my Kurdish contacts in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). They are dealing with 120,000 internally displaced persons and the situation is not easy for them. However, according to them, it is under control for now.

I want to add one more thing. Many ask why we have to deal with a binary choice. Why do we have to choose only between a regime that supports Iran and anti-regime Islamists who are Jihadists. I can explain why since I grew up facing that choice. 13 and 14-year-olds try to establish themselves as people and as community and society members. Freedom of association was prohibited under emergency law in Syria. That meant that any group of more than four people needed to register with the government as a group. Nobody really knows why the government selected the number four, but the legend goes that number four is the number of people involved in the card game in Syria. As such, the government did not want to have to register every card game. However, associations beyond that required official government approval. That approval was never given.

So, young people in late middle school or high school had two options. They could join government entities and Soviet inspired pioneer type youth associations, which were exempt from the four-person rule. Alternatively, they could join religious institutions, which were also exempt from the rule. With a majority Muslim country, this implied many of the youth ended up joining mosques. Both parties agreed on anti-Semitism and hatred for Israel. So, both factions were raised on the concept that Israel is bad and that Jewish people are bad. This is why we cannot find any friends among any of these groups.

Sarah: How do you think Ankara will capitalize on the situation? As of now, it looks like the rebel forces are on a roll. How do you think Turkey will capitalize on this?

Hazem: Erdogan and Ankara are obsessed with the Kurdish issue. I say it to Turkish TV analysts all the time. I ask them why they are so obsessed with such a small group. The Kurds are not an existential problem for Turkey. I ask them why a country the size of Turkey has not resolved the issue ages ago. However, the Kurds are an ongoing issue over which Erdogan obsesses. That said, let’s not overestimate how much control Turkey has over what is happening right now. The Syrian National Army is ideologically aligned with Turkey and fully backed by them. However, there is no guarantee that alignment will last forever. Turkey has a very loose grip on the current situation in Syria. They have very little control over HTS. That is why the Turks are preemptively recusing themselves from a potentially complex situation that would get blamed on them, a NATO country. So yeah, Ankara is in the same position as the United States, Israel, and other countries in the region. They are in wait and see mode. That said, Ankara is more likely than us to cut the type of deals that we cannot not stomach in the US.

Sarah: Russia and Iran are both currently bogged down. Russia is busy with Ukraine. Hezbollah, Iran’s greatest asset, has been weakened significantly. Can either Russia or Iran come to the Assad regime’s aid.

Hazem: Let me share a map with you. The map is from this morning and it shows how the rebel forces have moved from Idlib, from the northwest into Hama and are taking additional territory as we speak. The Syrian regime is starting to move assets from the southern part of Syria, from Daraa into Homs. They are trying to make Homs the hill they potentially die on. Homs is the most central city in Syria. If you take Homs, you have control. You can move east, west and south.

Understanding the concept of expeditionary forces is important in this situation. Expeditionary forces are forces that can deploy very quickly overseas. Nobody except the US and NATO have these types of forces. Russia cannot move assets. It is very complex for them to move their forces. It would take time and they would endanger their assets very quickly. The Russian forces are in Tartus and their bases are in Tartus and Latakia. They are close to the operational zone right now. They may fly MiGS over the fighting but there is the potential that the MiGS will be forced to land in airports under rebel control. That is not an acceptable scenario for the Russians.

The Iranians will have a hard time moving assets and establishing bases in Syria. There are only two places where support can come from. Iran backed elements in Iraq have one potential entry point on the eastern side of Syria. Support could also come from the Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah fighters are incredibly demoralized. I have never seen any fighters more demoralized than Hezbollah right now.

So, the situation is looking very dire for the Assad regime right now. This morning, the Economist said that Assad is in mortal danger. Right now, I think any resolution would depend on the involvement of the big backers. The US is key here. We need to see if the US is going to wait until the HTS rules Syria or if it will draw a line somewhere and threaten to deploy some A-10s if that line is crossed.

Sarah: Do you believe there is any hope that the Assad regime survives? Does Assad have any other personal vision for Syria besides just surviving?

Hazem: Between 2011 and 2013, Assad lost most of the country to the rebels before Iran and then Russia got involved. Now no one is getting involved. Assad is also dealing with a much more complex situation than previously, when it comes to the capabilities of his own army. From a military perspective, if nobody interferes, he is gone. As I mentioned, the only country capable of interfering is the US. There is no scenario where the regime can muster enough of a force to deter the rebels, especially with the current tempo of operations.

The regime’s corruption is also contributing to the current scenario. The people are concerned that the forces taking over are Islamists. The Syrian people endured very negative experiences with ISIS. That said, they are saying that anything is better than living in poverty, fear and constant harassment by the troops of the Syria regime. They may well be replacing one kind of fear with another but they are currently supporting the fighting forces. Golani was in Aleppo Castle yesterday and there was a big celebration for him. The people are supporting them. The regime is falling apart as we speak.

Sarah: Right. We just have a few minutes before you are due to go on i24. As Henry Kissinger once said, “May they both lose.”

Hazem: Sarah, that is the hope, right? We hope they are going to clash for a period of time at least. At some point, the regime will muster all they have in one place and try to defend their hill, whether it is in Homs, Latakia or Tartus. However, we need to be smart about this as well. There needs to be a very high level of coordination between the United States, Israel and the Kurdish forces, our ace in the hole. This needs to be managed. We cannot just wait and pray. We have done that in the past to our own detriment. We need to get ahead of this. The US needs to get ahead of this fast.

Sarah: That is right. We cannot abandon the Kurds. They have been very loyal to the United States throughout the years, and God only knows what the invading forces might do to them.

Hazem: Sarah, I got off a call with one of the commanders of the SDF and they are concerned. I tried to comfort them as much as I could. I said, you guys are brothers in arms. The US does not usually abandon their brothers in arms. That said, they have valid concerns. This administration especially, seems confused at best.

Sarah: Right. We have to share you with i24 news. Hazem, thank you so much for your time and we are looking forward to a longer interview in the future. Thanks again.

Hazem: Thank you, Sarah, for everything that you do. Thank you. Have a wonderful day, everybody. Thank you.

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