Strong Middle East Currents

As I write these words, my family is scrambling once again into ceiled rooms because of yet another Houthi attempted attack onto Israel. This constitutes the eighth attack since March 18^th.  Because of the joint Israeli and American collaboration on the Iron Dome, no Houthi attacks aimed at Israeli population centers have managed to get through Israeli air defense systems. However, the Houthis have attacked US naval vessels 170 times, as well as commercial shipping vessels 145 times since 2003. This has had a profound impact on global shipping and is especially significant to the struggling  Egyptian economy.

In the north, Israel has been able to successfully eliminate much of Hezbollah’s infrastructure, yet even if they eliminated 130,000 missiles, 20,000 could still do a great deal of damage.  As you recall, on September 24, 2024, in an air raid that leveled six apartment buildings in Beirut, Israel killed Hezbollah’s chief architect and commander, Hassan Nasrallah, while he was 60 feet underground in a bunker. And of course, in September 2024, Israel’s pager and walkie-talkie incident murdered at least 20 Hezbollah operatives and wounded or disfigured 120 more. Included in this was the elimination of Nabil Kaouk, the Deputy Head of Hezbollah’s Command Council, and 6 other Hezbollah chieftains.

Hezbollah had been Iran’s “jewel in the crown”, and Iran is still licking its wounds.

On Friday, March 28^th, Hezbollah launched two missiles towards the town of Kiryat Shmona. Israel conducted military operations in Beirut and several locations in southern Lebanon, marking the first such actions since a temporary truce was established on November 27, 2024. Israel maintains troops in 5 outposts in southern Lebanon.

Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun claims that “Israel has been continuously violating the ceasefire deal since it has been signed

However, one needs to maintain the point that Hezbollah has continuously been violating both UN Security Council Resolution 1559, and 1701, which maintains that all foreign troops should be out of Lebanon, including Iranian backed forces.

Looking at Syria, the new Sunni President, Ahmed al-Sharaa government has  formed a government, with at least one Alawite, Yarub Badr, one Druze, Amgad Badr, and one Christian, Hind Kabawat. This is after the murder of hundreds of Alawites. We still have a rather suspicious eye on this Al Qaeda member who changes his army fatigues for a suit and a tie. As President Ronald Regan said, “Trust, but verify.”

On the Gazan front, both Egypt and Qatar have just proposed a ceasefire that  would last until the end of Passover, where Hamas would release a handful of more hostages in exchange for approximately 200 Palestinian prisoners. Needless to say, there is no moral equivalency between the innocent men, women and children who were taken hostage by barbaric Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as well as unaffiliated terrorists. The Palestinian prisoners who are sitting in jail are there because they have committed brutal, bloody and violent crimes. We can not say the same for the innocent men, women and children that Hamas had been savagely kidnapped from their homes or from the Nova music festival on October 7^th.

Within Judea and Samaria, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has been smuggling weapons from Iran through Jordan, making cities such as Nablus, Jenin and Tulkarm ticking time bombs. The failed leadership of Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority is competing with its rival power, Hamas, making the politics there increasingly more volatile and radical.

And of course, the epicenter of all of this is the Islamic Republic of Iran, where they have been enriching uranium up to 60 per cent at the Fordow and Natanz facilities.  It has reached the point now where Iran will be able to, within one week’s time, enrich enough uranium for five nuclear weapons. Iran might be able to simultaneously produce the capability to insert this within a nuclear warhead.

Last week, Iran rejected the prospect of direct negotiations with the United States.

However, on Sunday morning, on NBC News, President Trump stated that “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. There will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”

Let’s hope the President is a man of his word.

Sarah N. Stern is Founder and President of EMET, a Middle East think tank and policy institute that works on Capitol Hill.