What is Happening in Iran, Today Transcript

Disclaimer: This transcript is an edited version of a transcript created using AI technology and may not reflect 100% accuracy.

The video can be found here.

Sarah: Good afternoon, and welcome to yet another riveting and compelling webinar brought to you by the Endowment for Middle East Truth, EMET. We are honored to have with us today Dr. Mordechai Kedar. Dr. Kedar has been an Arabist or Orientalist at Bar-Ilan University, where he got both his BA and his PhD, and has been a research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center. He has also served in the IDF Military Intelligence for 5 years and specializes in Islamist terrorist groups, Syrian Arab political discourse, and Arab mass media. As I am reading this to you, at least 12,000 or as many as 40,000 protesters in the Islamic Republic of Iran, hungry for freedom, might have been slaughtered by their regime. It is very difficult to determine what the numbers actually are because of the internet blackout, which has been in place for at least five days. Right now in Israel, where I am, people are stocking up their sealed rooms to make sure they have the water and provisions for what might be another attack by the Islamic Republic. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bakr Qalibaf, warned on Sunday that Israel, the US military, and shopping centers would all be considered “legitimate targets” if Washington launches a military attack against Iran. Mati[?], first, can you describe what has evolved within the Islamic Republic of Iran in the last three weeks?

Dr. Mordechai Kedar: Well, what we see for 18 days, actually, is a new wave of violence from the people against the government, and from the government against the people, around an amount of violence which we have never seen in the past. Although there were violent rounds of disturbances and demonstrations, we never saw such a magnitude of killing on both sides. Look, today there was a funeral of the IRGC and police, people who got killed. They claimed that at least 300 of them got killed. This is a big number. On the other side, the numbers which people are talking about of the casualties within the civilians, I saw a figure of 30,000 if you combine all the numbers from all the towns and all the cities which saw these violent events. So definitely, in this regard, the violence is the worst ever. But not only this, what we see also now is many sectors of society taking part, which in the past we didn’t see. Today, we see the bazaar, means the merchants, actually also step into the streets because when the currency is deteriorating in such a way, they cannot work because they don’t know what the price is. The price in the morning is not the price at noon, and the price at noon is not the price in the evening. How can you run a shop or any business in such an environment? So they got sick and tired of this. The ladies who were crushed 3 or 4 years ago in 2022 in the hijab demonstrations after Mahsa Amini was murdered were oppressed again.

So now they are demonstrating, and not only this, you also saw women with a hijab protesting against the regime. It means it is not only the non-religious or those who are angry at the religious symbols; it is many of them. We see students, we see all the issues, even children we see, and the numbers, of course, are unprecedented. These numbers are explained at least partially by the fact that a new element came this time, or two or three elements which came from the outside. One is what Trump wrote in his social [inaudible], that he’s behind those demonstrators, and he warned the regime from shooting into demonstrations, and so forth. He repeated what he said, not only by writing, but also talking to the camera in several occasions. This is something which is also unprecedented when the American president actually backed the people in the street. Just to compare, Obama did nothing in 2009, and Jimmy Carter actually did the opposite. He warned the Shah not to shoot in the demonstrations of the Islamists. Now, Trump does the opposite; he warns the Islamists not to shoot into demonstrations of those who would like to see the Shah back. This is one element: this Trump support. The second element is what Trump did in Venezuela, capturing Maduro. This showed the Iranians that the man means business. He is acting. He is acting rather than speaking like the others. He is doing what is needed, and Maduro, don’t forget, was a very good friend of the Iranians. So, capturing Maduro gave the Iranians encouragement: now they will do it to Khamenei, or to Pezeshkian, or all the others.

Actually, there was a clip running around; a lady talked to Trump and says, “Hey, we have here a thousand Maduros, come and take them all.” So this is another element which definitely encouraged the people in Iran to run to the streets. The third issue is something also which is also new, is the emergence of the image of Reza Shah as some kind of a leader of the rebellion. I’m not sure that he actually meant to be the leader of the rebellion. He definitely came out with all kinds of clips encouraging the people to run the streets, yet I’m not so sure that he is willing to come back to Iran in order to become the next Shah, if and when the regime is being toppled. So, definitely the people in the streets are running in the streets and shout, “Long live the Shah.” This is something which we didn’t see in the past, because every time, which means people streamed to the streets in the past, everybody was asking, “Okay, who is your leader?” Without a leader, you don’t have any revolution. Now they apparently have at least an image of a person who might be also willing to come back to Iran in order to take over the place. So these are three new elements which we didn’t see in the past, and they are very important. However, the situation today is at least a good deal of disappointment, because so far, 18 long days, look, 15 days or 14 days of them were with full internet. The whole world saw the casualties. The whole world could see very easily, could see the violence of the government against the demonstrators. Everybody could see. And yet neither Trump nor Netanyahu, nobody did anything visible against the mullahs. Maybe some things behind the scenes, which nobody knows about, yes, but something which will resonate as the support, public support to the people they didn’t see.

Yes, there are many people in Iran who are disappointed at Iran, at Trump and Netanyahu together, because they know they derived the conclusion from what happened in June, the 12-day war. Israel started that war with a very precise strike against scientists who worked in the nuclear industry. Israel targeted in their bed, Israel targeted commanders of the IRGC, and many more. So why didn’t Israel do the same thing [inaudible]? If they knew how to target Nasrallah, why don’t they target Khamenei? They know that if Khamenei is being targeted, the sustainability of the regime will be damaged severely. So, where is Trump with all his might? What we saw in Fordow? Why can’t he do the same thing to the headquarters of the IRGC and so forth? So yes, when there are people killed in the street, they are looking to right and left in order to look for some help, and they don’t see the help yet. They hear, they even believe that Trump wants, but okay, where are you? I got messages in this atmosphere. “Hey guys, where are you? You know the way to Iran very well. We saw you in June.” So here we have to take it into account. So these are, I would say, the new elements which add to the magnitude of this wave of violence. What will be? I have no idea because I’m not a future teller, but there are some possible scenarios. The worst scenario is that the regime with all the hits, and even if the Americans hit it, and even if Israel, the regime will survive, because the regime will use more and more power, and people will become more and more disappointed, weak, frustrated, you name it, and it will gradually fade out, and life will continue from that point, waiting to the next round. This can very possibly happen. This can happen.

Another scenario which might also be realistic is that, let’s say, the deputy of the commander of the IRGC, for example, will come to the TV station and say, “Hey guys, I’m taking the government.” He will put Khamenei in house arrest. He will put others also in house arrest, and he will run and say, “Please give me a year. I want to stabilize the country. I will be peaceful. I will be nice. Both of the people inside Iran, and let’s say we’ll stop the nuclear program, remove the sanctions from us, let us breathe some money, and give me a year.” So what do you think, Sarah? Do you think that the world, including Trump, will give him the year or not?

Sarah: I would hope not. He did say that we’re locked and ready, and if anybody’s harmed, he is ready to go, but it is still ahead of the octopus.

Dr. Mordechai: He also said in that tweet that the support is on its way.

Sarah: Yeah, he did say that.

Dr. Mordechai: So, how long should it take this way? So, I will not be surprised at all if the world will buy this deputy commander, for example, who will take the place, will put martial law on everybody, ban on demonstrations. He will, let’s say, cut the budget. He will do economic measures which are needed, and he will ask the world to remove the sanctions for one year. He will freeze the military nuclear program. He will call the IAEA in order to supervise, and he will say, “We are okay now.” I’m more than sure that the world will give him the credit, because the world doesn’t like wars, especially the Europeans, who are heavily invested in Iran and don’t want to lose their investments, just like they lost their investment in Iraq after 2003. So whatever it takes in order to preserve the regime, especially if it makes face as if it changed. After a year, what will happen? Two things. One is that he will continue his line of appeasement to the world, and the other scenario is that he brings back Khamenei to turn Iran again into a Velayat-e Faqih state, as it was. It also can be that the regime will do something like this, some kind of trick, in order to stay in power by creating a picture of, “We are good now.” This is a very realistic scenario. Another scenario is, yes, that they will collapse. Khamenei will run away to Moscow or to another place, to North Korea. His ministers, [inaudible], and they will run away, those who will stay alive, and the regime collapses, and there is no Velayat-e Faqih anymore. What will be the next day? In my view, there will be a great chaos. Even if the Shah will come back in order to take over, first of all, he will not come back immediately.

He will be willing to see that all the remnants of the Islamic regime will also run away, will vanish in one way or another, because he doesn’t want to sacrifice his life by somebody who will commit a suicide attack on him in order to kill him. So only after the situation has calmed, he will come. In this situation of the collapse of the regime, there is a good chance that some minorities will declare statehood, means will divide Iran, just like what happened in the Soviet Union or in Yugoslavia, or Czechoslovakia. Because of the regime change, the state fell apart along ethnic lines. The same ethnic lines exist in Iran, because the Persians, who are a minority, are in the center, surrounded by Arabs in the Ahvaz area, in the southwest part of the country, overlooking the Persian Gulf. To the north, means northwest of the country, are the Kurdish minority. The north is Azerbaijanis. The brethren of the Azerbaijanis were under the Soviet Union, and now for 35 years they are already. To the east, means the northeast, are the Turkmens, who speak Turkish, but the Azerbaijanis also speak Turkish. In the southeast are the Baluchis, who are bordering with Pakistan and Afghanistan, actually the Balochistan of Pakistan and Afghanistan. So these are the main six groups or ethnic groups of Iran, in addition to some 40 more groups like Qashqai, Luris, Caspians, Mazanderanis, Bakhtiaris, and many more. Who knows where it will stop, because it can start with the Baluchis and the Kurdish, and will continue with others. Who knows how many countries will Iran fall apart.

So this is a realistic scenario, yet might be accompanied with the struggles and feuds between the minorities about places which are mixed. For example, the harbor city of Bandar Abbas is populated by Arabs who came from the north to Bandar Abbas, and the Baluchis who came from the south and the east of the town. So, to whom this town belongs, this might be some problems which might ignite feuds and struggles between the minorities, just for example. So Iran might very possibly sink into, I wouldn’t say full chaos, but definitely, there will be some chaotic places or regions or even times. Nobody can prevent it, but the price is, from my point of view, acceptable, because the alternative is to be butchered by the Mullah regime. So this is more or less the spectrum of possibilities when it comes to Iran domestically. From the external point of view, I think that the world view or the view of the world will be dramatically changed, and to the good side. For example, all the militias which Iran implanted in the Middle East and beyond, in South America as well, will be abandoned, because now we are surrounded by others who will support them, who will send them money and weapons and ammunition, and who will incite them. They will be like orphans. I’m talking about the Houthis in Yemen. I’m talking about Hamas in Gaza. It is about Hezbollah in Lebanon For a while, they will survive, but for a long time, they actually are losing their back, losing their pocket, and losing the power behind them.

So definitely this will make life in the Middle East much better, and we have to make sure that other powers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, do not try to fill the hollowness or the space which Iran will leave in this process. Another good thing will happen when there will be no drone supply to Russia, because, as you know, Iran is supplying Russia with drones. Now the end of the war in Ukraine will be closer, because Putin will not have anymore the Iranian drones which he used in a very barbaric way against Ukraine. This is another good thing. But in my humble view, we have to see another very, very good development which will come out from the collapse of Iran. As you know, Qatar is the money behind Muslim Brotherhood all over the world, in Egypt, in Jordan, even in Israel, in Hamas, of course, and in the United States of America. Qatar would have been crushed by the Saudis because of this, if not the Iranian backing. For many years, Iran actually is the safeguard of Qatar. Iran is the enabler of Qatar to devastate the world through organizations like Hamas, who came from the school of thought of the Muslim Brotherhood. Yesterday, Trump declared that the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, in Egypt, in some other countries are outlawed in the United States. Yet he forgot the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States of America. Organizations like CAIR, MSA are all Muslim Brotherhood organizations, as was revealed in the explanatory memorandum, which was authored in 1991. So apparently, Trump forgot about the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States, yet he for sure will watch this webinar, and he will maybe do something about this.

However, Qatar, without the Iranian backing, will be forced by the Saudis to change its way of conduct. Saudi Arabia will give them hell if they don’t stop funding Muslim Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia hates the Muslim Brotherhood organizations more than they hate the Iranians, believe me. This is what I mean by the best or almost the best benefit, which will come from attacking Iran or toppling the Iranian regime: that Qatar will now be subject to pressures to stop funding Muslim Brotherhood and other terror organizations in the world. Let me sum it. The world will be a much better place to live in without Iran, especially if you take into account the problem which China will face when somebody else will start asking where Iran exports its oil and gas. I think that 17% or 18% of the oil and gas which China imports comes from Iran. Apparently, the next regime, if it will be loyal to its way, might find or look for different markets for its oil and gas in order to punish the Chinese for supporting the mullahs for so many years. So, Sarah, this is my feeling that the world is about to start a new chapter in its history, the chapter after Iran, after the Islamic regime of Iran. This chapter will be much better, much calmer, much more peaceful, much more reasonable than what we see until today, influenced by Iran. Let’s all hope that President Trump, with his friends and allies, first of all, Israel, will do the right thing in order to remove this stain from world history, which threatens everybody, especially the West, especially the big Satan and the small Satan in their terminology. Yes, we should show them who is the Satan and who is the good angel. Right.

Sarah: Okay. Mati[?], we had, of course, Benjamin Franklin many, many years ago, who said, “He who hesitates is lost.” With each day that goes by, and there are more and more fatalities, do you think that President Trump is losing the momentum and that there is a possibility that the regime might just continue to murder these peaceful protesters and perpetuate their regime?

Dr. Mordechai: Well, just to continue what you said, and I tweeted them 18 hours ago, every additional day of life for the Iranian regime is an additional day of death for the citizens of Iran.

Sarah: So do you think that Iran could just be shuffling the deck? There could be an evolution of different mullahs. There could be a devolution of the entire regime, and it will just be monarchy for a while, and chaos, or there could be a real revolution. Do you think we’re heading towards a real counter-revolution?

Dr. Mordechai: I have no idea because I’m not a future tenor, but I think that all the scenarios can be realistic. There are no scenarios which is detached from the unknown reality of Iran, because we didn’t witness such a thing in the past. When Saddam Hussein was ousted, it was because of a big army of Americans and others who invaded Iraq. Jolani actually came with a big force and caused Bashar al-Assad to run away. I don’t see now the troops, I mean ground troops, boots on the ground. I don’t see the world armies about to invade Iran. Just to remind you what happened with Saddam Hussein, where tanks and cannons all landed from Kuwait to Iraq and devastated the regime of Saddam Hussein. All I see today is airstrikes, and from the air it’s very hard to target every policeman and every IRGC member in Iran. There is a big difference between fighting on the ground and fighting from the air, and that’s why there is a possibility, which is realistic to a large extent, that the regime will actually survive in spite of all the hits and all the demonstrations and all the violence. Why? Because the world will tolerate it. Look, China has a veto in the Security Council. Russia has a veto. If both countries unite in veto against any measures from the world against Iran or against the Iranian regime, and how can you do anything? Only America by itself or by some friends and allies like Israel, maybe Britain, maybe France, although I’m not sure that they will do it because they are afraid of the Islamic minorities in their own places. So to act against Islamic State, although Shia, I think that the Islamists in these countries, in Britain, in France, in Belgium, will not swallow it easily. They will not accept.

Sarah: I know. I’ve seen some Shia demonstrations in London, with the self-flagellation, lots of them. So I’m not sure. I think it’s up to the United States, and Israel is a thousand miles away. What can Israel do on its own if the United States weren’t to help?

Dr. Mordechai: Look, Israel and the United States could target communication centers. They could target commandment centers. They could target maybe even leaders here and there, although now there is no surprise. Don’t forget, in June, when Israel started a war by surprise, and they were caught in their beds. Today, nobody’s at home. All the commanders of the IRGC, even the scientists of the nuclear program, are more than sure that they are not at home. More than sure. I didn’t check it. I don’t have any way to check it, but I’m more than sure that they are now hiding somewhere very, very deep under the surface. So today, it’s much harder to repeat the way which Israel started the 12-day war in June. Apparently, the Mossad knows it, and the American CIA knows it, because now we lost the element of surprise. What can be done now? The Pentagon knows, the Israeli Ministry of Defense knows, and let’s hope that they will do something, because if they don’t, the disappointment in Iran will be so big, so big, that the question if they will ever repeat it.

Sarah: [inaudible].

Dr. Mordechai: Because in this situation, where you have full evidence that thousands, many thousands of people got killed, after you said that you will intervene and you don’t, who will believe you in the future? Who will run in the street? And don’t forget, toppling the Iranian regime is a big interest of Israel, of the United States, of Europe, and every normal people in the world should be longing for 47 years to get rid of this diabolic regime. So now you have the opportunity to save the world from the trinity of Iran, Qatar, Russia, and you can add to this China, because China, without the Iranian oil, they’re in a big problem. They have to start working back with coal and then poison the people. That’s why they need this.

Sarah: Right. So we’ve read reports that there are millions of people on the streets, or there have been. I don’t know what’s going on now with the internet blackout. Would a failure to take down the regime result in a huge purge of this population?

Dr. Mordechai: Well, this is the situation. Sarah, let’s hope that the people with courage will decide positively in order to rid the world from this sore, this problem named the Iranian regime.

Sarah: So what will happen if the Saudis and Qataris, they’re watching this, are they fearing revolt? In their own leadership, as they watch this going on in the streets of [inaudible]?

Dr. Mordechai: Qatar is a family state. The family doesn’t fight against the state. The state is legitimate in the eyes of the Qataris. But I think that maybe if Iran collapses under the masses, maybe China or the Chinese people will start doing something like this. Or people in Russia. People in Russia might get the idea. If the Iranians succeeded to do it to the Iranian regime, why can’t we do it against Putin?

Sarah: But when you live inside a tyranny like that, the fear of losing your own life is so great. But for some reason, the Iranian people had the courage. I think it started on the marketplace, and there was no money, and people turned on the taps, there was no water. And then it morphed into an ideological protest. And masses and masses.

Dr. Mordechai: So let’s hope that they succeed, because their success will be actually a redemption for the rest of the world.

Sarah: Yeah. So, do you think Erdoğan, and with his horrific rhetoric against the state of Israel, and the fact that he has troops on the ground in Syria, do you think he is bracing to become the next Iran, a Sunni Iran?

Dr. Mordechai: According to what I hear from all kinds of people, he is dreaming to restore the Ottoman Empire. For him, the diamond on the crown will be Mecca. Don’t forget that the Ottoman Empire also ruled Mecca and Medina. So maybe he wants to replace the Saudis, and don’t forget, he hates the Saudis. The Saudis hate him.

Sarah: Right, he is a very, very different kind of Muslim than the Arabs of Saudi Arabia. I don’t think [inaudible].

Dr. Mordechai: He is Muslim Brotherhood. He is against the system. While in Saudi Arabia, Islam is the system.

Sarah: Right. So if Iran’s government is one that is replaced by one that is friendlier to Israel, do you anticipate further distancing from Israel by the Saudis?

Dr. Mordechai: Look, the Saudis have to play the game, because as long as this Iranian regime is there, the Saudis are very much afraid of them. They say things which the Iranian regime wants to hear. Especially after the attack on the Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais at 4:00 in the morning of September 14, 2019. The Saudis will never forget what happened then. And they behave.

Sarah: So why do you think it’s so hard for the West to move against the Muslim Brotherhood? Or why is it so hard for the United States to take definitive action against the Islamic Republic of Iran?

Dr. Mordechai: It is a combination of reasons. First of all, Qatar is buying people on right, left, and center. There are many evidence that they are paying people, especially people with authority and influence. So this is one reason. Second thing, Qatar or the Muslim Brotherhood try their best not to violate the law as it is now. Until they take the country over, they try not to aggravate or to wake the lion up. They want to castrate him. This is their plan to Islamize the West. It can be, at least when they are a minority, they have to behave. So this is why it’s so tricky. Their organizations are 501(c)(3). With presidents like Obama, the door of the White House was widely open in front of them. So when people collaborate with the Muslim Brotherhood, what do we expect? That they will take over in 10 years, 20 years, 30 years? And in America, the situation today is what was in Europe 15 years ago. Therefore, if you want to have some kind of how America will look like in 15 years, look at Europe today.

Sarah: Right. That’s horrible. Demography is destiny. So what do you make of the news that there are Saudi attempts to lobby the Trump administration to avoid military action against Iran?

Dr. Mordechai: Apparently, the Saudis are afraid of revenge from the Iranians if it failed, if the revolution failed.

Sarah: Right. So, at this point, are you at all optimistic that there will be a counter?

Dr. Mordechai: I am compulsive optimistic. Why? Because I see the situation around us. With all the problems, all the wars, all the bloodshed, Israel is way much higher in any rate, in any criteria compared to the Arab world. Therefore, I am always optimistic.

Sarah: Okay. And one question, how do we make sure that if there is U.S.-Israeli combined action, it won’t turn into either an Iraq or Afghanistan?

Dr. Mordechai: I cannot assure anything like this, because lawlessness can bring normal people to craziness. Therefore, I think that the United States, or other countries, if the regime actually collapses, the states have to send the [inaudible] to Iran with a big, big amount of money, means to tell him very precisely, very easily, “Hey man, take the country, do your best, and send us the bill.” More or less like this. We will help you because your success will be our success, our safety, and our security. Go ahead, do what you think has to be done, and send us the bill.

Sarah: Inshallah. Inshallah, as they say.

Dr. Mordechai: Inshallah.

Sarah: We can only hope. Look, Reza Pahlavi at this point seems to be an iconic image of the pre-Khomeini revolution in Iran, and that’s why they’re hungry for him. A lot of the people on the streets are age 40 and below, and they romanticize the past. They’re feeling suffocated right now by the theocracy, and they want something, they’re longing for something. I hope Reza Pahlavi has a plan, because it is a very disparate, very dysfunctional country at this point. It has to be rebuilt. The fires are all around, the cities are destroyed, and I don’t know what’s going on inside the majlis, and what they’re saying, and the IRGC, but let’s hope that they could go around. Does anyone have any further questions that they would like to ask? Just write them now. What role are the Mojahedin-e-Khalq or the People’s Mojahedin Organization playing in the current revolt? Are they playing a role?

Dr. Mordechai: I don’t know. I really don’t know. The Mojahedin-e-Khalq, I have no idea.

Sarah: All right. Okay, so really we’re all praying for the success of the people of Iran against the regime. Do you have any last comments that you’d like to leave us with?

Dr. Mordechai: Let us be optimistic.

Sarah: Let us be optimistic.

Dr. Mordechai: And I thank you very much, Sarah, for having me here.

Sarah: Thank you so much. [crosstalk] Doctor.

Dr. Mordechai: Let’s see what happens during this month.

Sarah: Okay. Thank you. Everybody should try to book Dr. Mordechai Kedar. What is your email if people would like you to speak?

Dr. Mordechai: It’s kedar.tour, K-E-D-A-R dot T-O-U-R, at gmail.com.

Sarah: At gmail.com. And please try to support the Endowment for Middle East Truth. Your funding is keeping us alive. We’re on Capitol Hill every day, and we have these wonderful webinars with excellent people such as Dr. Mordechai Kedar every week. We thank you so much.

Dr. Mordechai: Thank you so much, Sarah, [inaudible].

Sarah: Thank you, [inaudible], bye-bye.

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