In the Persian Bazaar

All of us are waiting with bated breath. In the negotiations with Iran, President Trump holds all the cards.

What exactly is on the table? According to a story in Axios by Barak Raviv, there would be a 60-day extension of the ceasefire. This extends to Hezbollah in Lebanon, much to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s and the entire state of Israel’s, very legitimate discord.

The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. It is not clear under whose jurisdiction these international waters will go to, but it looks quite clear to be Iranian.

Iran would be free to sell oil (to primarily China.)

And talks would be held limiting Iran’s nuclear project, although the Iranians say that is outside the scope of the negotiations, to be determined in some later, (ever?) date.

Exactly what has the United States and her allies gotten out of this?

As Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has posted on X, “The deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook: Pay the IRGC to build a WMD (weapons of mass destruction) program and terrorize the world. Not remotely America First. It’s straightforward: open the damned straight. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region. Overdue. Let’s go.”

President Trump, who campaigned on “ending forever wars”, and positioned himself as a “Peace President”, wants desperately to find an “off ramp”. He has one eye on the price of gas, and another eye on the midterm elections.

What happened to the 40,000 dissenters who were killed by the regime last December and January? What happened to Trump’s pledge during the height of the protests to “”Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!… HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”

Where exactly is that help?

According to Behnam Ben Taleblu of FDD “There is no negotiating with these people. The Iranians are playing with cost and risk and legacy issues. Trump took four divergent pathways that build on each other…The Iranians have figured that out. And they are playing towards his risk-factor, at the same time…The real way to win with the regime is to push away from the table and flip the script to empower the people. It fears its own people more than it fears American or Israeli guns. They are empowering the 10 to 15 percent of civilians that still favor the regime.”  He goes further, stating, “The Islamic Republic is doing this to prevent the next round of dissenters; the next round of protests.”

The dissenters are living like caged animals. They are afraid to go out on the streets. Iranian authorities have now set up military training booths, teaching ordinary believers in the regime how to use assault rifles; how to hold a Kalashnikov, how to take it apart, how to put it back together, and how to use it against their population.

However, even more importantly, how to psychologically prepare the population against the United States, against Israel, as well as against their neighboring protesters.

Yes, oil prices could rise to around $5 per gallon. And yes, the Strait of Hormuz should remain an international waterway, not one controlled by any single sovereign state. However, it is the Islamic Republic’s understanding that they will maintain control of the Strait.  The Iranian news agency Tasnim said that the Strait “would not return to its pre-war status.”

The Fars (Iranian) news agency just reported that “the Strait will remain under Iranian sovereignty.”

Why were the nuclear issues not included in these negotiations?

Yes, we know that once the Islamic Republic passes the nuclear threshold, it would become as formidable as North Korea.

We also know that China, Russia, North Korea and all the Gulf states are meticulously watching.

Israel is expressing grave concern.

This morning, the US stuck Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to lay mines. Is this more moral ambiguity?

Why was Jerusalem omitted from these very serious negotiations? Why did Israel have to learn about these talks through other diplomatic channels and surveillance?

What is it about our negotiations with Iran, despite our combined military victories, that puts us in the losing position every single time?

We might have better weapons. But they are beating us in their Persian bazaar.

Sarah N. Stern is Founder and President of EMET, the Endowment for Middle East Truth, a Middle Eastern Think Tank that educates our legislators on Capitol Hill.