Project 2028: America’s ‘Back to the Future’ moment on Iran

In a previous article for JNS, I wrote about the political and personnel shifts we’ll be witnessing as the second Trump administration assumes power. These will require pro-Israel advocates working to promote the U.S.-Israel relationship in Washington, as well as those in Jerusalem, to adjust their talking points in a way that better fits the current political moment. In particular, they will have to fit well into the geopolitical and economic ideals that will guide the next administration’s foreign policy, especially as the 2028 expiration of the current Memorandum of Understanding draws near.

While some issues will require brave and, at times, unpleasant shifts in pro-Israel rhetoric and advocacy, there’s one issue where we need only to return to the basics—Iran. As we look back at President-elect Donald Trump’s previous term, we see a pursuit of increasingly wise and effective policies against the ayatollah’s regime. This began with the president’s clear acknowledgment in 2018 that the Islamic Republic is not abiding by the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the subsequent decision to withdraw from it.

What followed was a steady trajectory of imposition of new sanctions against Iran and tightening of existing ones, culminating in what was dubbed the “maximum pressure” campaign. This was coupled with open expressions that military options are on the table and that actions by Tehran and its proxies against U.S. forces in the region will have real consequences. In January of 2020, Trump made good on these threats as he commanded over the elimination of the Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani.

Trump’s policies delivered. “Maximum pressure” brought the Islamic regime in Iran to the verge of collapse for the first time since its rise to power in 1979. The president’s unwavering commitment to tough policies, as well as his staunch support of Israel, brought results in the diplomatic arena as well. America’s Gulf and regional allies, confident that this policy would be continuously pursued, gained the confidence they needed to align themselves with Western interests, ultimately leading to the Abraham Accords.

Many were hopeful that Trump’s policies, yielding positive results by any measure, would transcend administrations and that common sense would triumph over political grievances. Much to our chagrin, these policies were effectively reversed upon President Joe Biden’s ascension to power. Economic sanctions on the Islamic regime were either lifted, waived or unenforced. Tehran’s proxies, such as the Houthis, were undesignated as foreign terrorist organizations, allowing them to grow stronger. Regional partners like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, seeing these changes, began turning away from America and growing closer to adversaries such as Russia and China.

As the Islamic Republic’s financial situation improved over the last four years, it has used the funds at its disposal to finance its proxies, from Gaza to Iraq to Yemen, and wreak regional havoc. This culminated in the Hamas-led terrorist attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Hezbollah’s continued shelling of the country. The regime has also used its renewed strength to worsen its inhumane treatment of dissidents.

Fortunately, it seems that these developments have made it ever clearer to Trump and his team that a return to their old policies is warranted at this time. On the campaign trail, Trump kept repeating his claim that Oct. 7 would not have happened under his administration, given that Iran was broke and had no money for Hamas and Hezbollah. These comments reflect the president-elect’s belief in the effectiveness of truly crippling economic sanctions. His comments recently, threatening that there will be “all hell to pay” in the Middle East should the hostages held by Hamas not be released, are a sign to Tehran and its proxies that military action by America and its allies remains an option.

While the damage done to the Iranian people, the region and Israel is indeed great, it is not irreversible. The reimposition and renewed enforcement of sanctions, coupled with a credible threat of force, will bring results over time. At the very least, an ayatollah drained of revenue streams will be unable to export his Islamist agenda to the Middle East and supply his regime’s proxies with lethal weapons to be used against Israeli civilians and American troops. Over time, the Islamic Republic may find itself forced into real concessions vis-à-vis its nuclear program. Perhaps even an emboldened Iranian people will see a moment of opportunity to bring the downfall of their repressive government.

For us, as pro-Israel advocates, the mission is simple. Initially, we must try as best we can to push the incoming administration to turn back time and revive the policies of Trump’s first presidency. A mere reversal of the current administration’s policies and a return to old ones will yield tangible results over time. Once that first goal has been achieved, we can try and build on these moves. We should stress that these renewed policies not only fit the interests of Israel and other regional allies but are in line with the U.S. interest of achieving greater regional stability and preventing the breakout of future wars, saving American money and American lives. Across all levels of this administration, it seems, for now, we have true partners in this endeavor.