Project 2028: How changing politics will affect US security assistance to Israel

(Nov. 22, 2024 / JNS)

Washington will be welcoming and swearing in the 119th Congress and a new Trump administration in January. For those who have been active in promoting the U.S.-Israel relationship, both here and in Jerusalem, now is a time to take stock. This means not just reflecting on work over the past four years but also recalibrating our mindset to the political and personnel shifts that are about to take place, bringing with them new opportunities as well as new challenges.

The first Trump administration brought with it a period of tremendous accomplishments for proponents of Israel and its alliance with America. From the opening of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem to the recognition of the Golan Heights to the Abraham Accords—those four years brought the promise of fulfillment to the dreams of many pro-Israel advocates.

While we approach these next four years with renewed energy and vigor, we must be mindful of emerging factors and ideals that will be brought into the new administration’s political calculations. As we wade into and navigate these new waters, I suggest pursuing pro-Israel advocacy in a manner that fits well into the shaping political environment surrounding the next president.

Come January, we can expect two major shifts in U.S. policy on arms exports to Israel: The first, which Israel will certainly benefit from almost immediately, will be an end to the “slow-walking” and, at times, an outright embargo on munitions. This policy, informally pursued by the outgoing administration, was made to pander to the far left in advance of the November election. As placating these individuals will not be top of mind for President-elect Donald Trump and his administration, and with mounting pressure from manufacturers and exporters to ensure prompt deliveries of American equipment, we can expect things to return to normal in this regard.

The second shift is one of concern: gradually, we’ll be seeing a smaller commitment to the idea of American foreign aid in general. For years, the American right wing had been increasingly seeking to prioritize domestic matters and limit government spending to a minimum. Calls for limiting assistance, including security assistance, have so far been reserved primarily for Ukraine. However, evidence that this rhetoric will one day enter the discussion vis-à-vis assistance to Israel already exists. Last year, U.S. President Joe Biden called for supplemental funding for security assistance to Israel in the wake of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks. That call was met with a Republican bill that provides such funding but conditions it on the slashing of money from other areas. Noteworthy, too, is Trump’s establishment of a new department dedicated to “government efficiency,” further signaling that curbing expenditures is becoming a Republican priority not just in word but in deed.

To weather these changes, we will need to engage this challenge head-on and meet the new political moment. As pro-Israel advocates, our mission will be to push harder for stable and continued support, particularly for military assistance. Israel’s goal will be to use this period for transition and minimize its dependency on American financing and production of its defense articles. While Israeli policies will be forced to change to meet changes in Washington, we can help ensure a “soft landing” so that Israel’s ability to defend itself is never compromised.

Notably, the current defense Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Israel and the United States, signed in 2016 with the Obama administration, provides extremely generous funding while gradually limiting incentives for Israel to pursue domestic manufacturing of defense articles. This MoU expires in 2028; the next one will likely be negotiated and signed with the incoming administration. This next MoU should work in the opposite direction of the last: gradually ensuring Israel’s enhanced self-reliance for the production and procurement of defense articles. Of course, Israel will never become fully independent of the need to import U.S.-made military equipment, but great strides can be made towards that end, including with regard to financing.

While memories of Trump’s first four years in office might usher in great hopes for what’s to come next, we must not forget that the political realities we are about to face will not be quite the same as those that characterized his last presidency. We must also remember that any and all achievements of that period did not materialize out of thin air but were the result of tireless work and relentless advocacy coming from Israelis and Americans on both sides of the Atlantic. With the ability and willingness to adjust our advocacy to the changing political landscape, great accomplishments can be made once again.