An Update on Israel’s and America’s Objectives in the War Transcript

Disclaimer: This transcript is an edited version of a transcript created using AI technology and may not reflect 100% accuracy.

The video can be found here.

Sarah Stern:  Good afternoon. It is a profound and terrific honor to have with us once again Brigadier General Amir Avivi. Amir is the founder and chair of Habithonistim or the IGSF. During his service, Amir held a series of very senior roles in the IGF, including Deputy Controller of the Security Forces, Director of the office of the Chief of Staff, deputy commander of the Gaza Division, commander of the Sagi Division, commander of Battalion 605, and commander of the School of Combat Engineering. As always, Amir, we’re delighted to have you.

Brigadier General Amir Avivi: Thank you very much.

Sarah Stern: Such a pleasure. Amir, the IDF has been targeting those Iranian ministers who focused on the Iranian protestors and where regime personnel were present. They’ve targeted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Esmaeil Khatib Intelligence Minister, Ali Lashani and Gholamreza Soleimani the head of the Besiege force. Do you believe that there is a kind of coordination between the IDF and the United States where the IDF is focused more on those individuals who were responsible for the crackdown on the protestors while the US is focusing more on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil tankers?

Amir: Definitely. The planning of this war has been going on for many, many months. Israel and the US set the goals analyzed tens of thousands of targets, some military, some leaders Navy for most Austral and so on. And did a very detailed planning on how to divide this between Israel and the US. Obviously as the war is evolving there are some changes, some of the adaptations for example, Israel didn’t expect to get involved in the issue of Hormuz but now the US is requesting Israel’s help also dealing with that. But it’s important to understand everything is coordinated, all the goals are aligned. We know exactly what we want to achieve, and there is no daylight between Israel and the US.

Sarah Stern: Do you believe that it’s Israel’s objective to displace the theocracy and replace it with a more secular government or will Israel be satisfied just to keep hitting the regime and wearing it down.

Amir: I think both countries understand that if this regime stays they will go back to building nuclear capabilities, drones, ballistic missiles. We saw that in the 12 day war. We hit them really hard. The US also attacked them. There was a crystal clear message, don’t mess with us. If you’ll try to rebuild capabilities we have to react. And yet they did. They went back to producing massive amounts of ballistic missiles and nuclear capabilities and drones and so on. They wouldn’t stop. So I think there is an understanding that we need to set the terms for a change of regime. I want to focus on one event we had this week, we targeted Larijani. Larijani is an interesting figure because I can tell you that I met a very prominent diplomat in Israel this last week with Mossad represented a guy from our organization and this diplomat really focused with us on Larijani asking if he could be an option for a different government because he was considered to be supposedly more moderate. They’re all crazy and evil but if there was one guy who you would think might be an option, and maybe he was him, and the fact that he was targeted sends us a clear message, the US and Israel are not going to have a reality where this regime stays. The idea is the complete change of regime.

Sarah Stern: That is amazing. How would you compare the United States and Israel’s attacks on the Islamic Republic of Iran to what is going on in Israel?

Amir: Well, the US has its space. It’s operating very far away from the US. Logistically it’s very complicated and it takes time. So the attack started with Israel attacking firstly like a bulldog, storming Iran with hundreds of airplanes really surprising and attacking at a pace that was like twice harder than the US. Although obviously we’re a much smaller army and country. But the US meanwhile, amassed more and more and more capabilities. The procedures the US has are a bit slower but once this country gets going, it gets going. The US is attacking more and more and more. It’s just growing every day. It’s now suppressing Israel in the base of attacks. The US is indeed very focused on our most strain on the Iranian Navy and all the difference of the strain. It’s a very, very complex environment and it will take some time to deal with this. One problem is that the Iranians have placed mines in the strain and the ships that are supposed to deal with this US ships were taken out of order and the next ones will arrive only a month and a half from now. So this was something that was not planned good enough and this is why the US is seeking help from other countries to assist. It’s amazing to see that the Europeans that got so much assistance from the US, and the US has fought for them huge wars and is funding all of NATO and has funded Ukraine with $288 billion saving the Europeans when they are called to help even a bit they’re not doing so. This is crazy. It’s unbelievable. And this, by the way positions Israel in a very, very strong position because the US understands there is only one country standing with them, willing to fight with them, and also showing the capability beyond imagination capability to deliver and really achieve the goals that are being achieved in this world.

Sarah Stern: Why do you think the Houthis haven’t gotten involved yet?

Amir: Well, they might any moment. I would assume that they probably will join at a certain point. We might think that maybe they’re deterred maybe they’re afraid, but it’s hard to tell. We have to take in account that at a certain point they will join and we have to be ready. The IDF set plans to deal with the Houthis when and if we’ll need to deal with this.

Sarah Stern: The IRGC and the Basij and the police force meanwhile have most of the weapons or all the weapons. When do you believe it’ll be safe for the protestors to go out from their homes?

Amir: Israel and the US are systematically dismantling the revolutionary guard and the Basij forces. Also psychologically, the fact that Israel is attacking them in the streets, they position chake posts and Israel is attacking them in the middle of the street. They cannot stand today in the center of Tehran and inspect or terrorize the citizens and we took out all their leadership and bases and it’s ongoing. So there will be a moment where the terms will be set for the Iranian people to go out to the streets and take over their country and we all hope they will do that.

Sarah Stern: President Trump has just sent 2,500 Marines to the region. Why do you believe they’ve landed there?

Amir: I think it has to do with the strain of Hormuz in order to secure the strain you need also boots on the ground on some places, maybe the agile and where all the distribution of oil of Iran is done. I would assume that that’s the mission, not necessarily in which to [inaudible] or things like that, which I’ve heard about.

Sarah Stern: As of this March Iran has launched widespread missile and drone attacks on all six golf cooperation council countries. The UAE despite valuing that it would not allow its airspace for an attack has suffered almost as much as Israel has. Do you believe that the Gulf countries will remember this and feel a need to ally with Israel, which is emerging as a superpower?

Amir: They’re already reaching out to Israel and all of them. And asking for assistance militarily and technologically. I think what’s going on is setting the terms for normalization after this war, and also the fact that if US takes over Hormuz and becomes like the one monic power in the area everybody’s going to align with the US. It’s obvious for everybody that the biggest partner of the US is Israel. We’re still clear where this is going and this is going towards peace agreements, normalization and so on.

Sarah Stern: Any predictions as to who will be the first to normalize with Israel after this?

Amir: I hope it’ll be Iran.

Sarah Stern: That would be great.

Amir: I would expect to see Iranians normalizing relations with us before the Saudi Arabia.

Sarah Stern: Beautiful. That’s the way it used to be in the seventies, I remember.

Amir: Yes. If there is a change of regime, immediately the first thing they will do is normalize relations with Israel and they will not mention any Palestinians and they won’t have any demand for a two-state solution. They will simply thank us. We, the Jewish people 2,500 years later we still remember Cyrus and what it did for us. He let us go back to our land and build our second temple. The Iranians will never ever forget what we did for them. It’s a historical moment. I know that the vast majority of the Iranian people appreciate it.

Sarah Stern: How has Qatar, which always try to make itself out as the “moderate country,” how have they been responding to this?

Amir: They were pretty upset today when we attack the gas fields in Iran because they’re partners with Iranians in the same gas field. But overall they will have to adapt. If we’re going towards an alliance in the region they won’t stay alone. They’re going to lose Iran. They adapt to adapt to the new reality and connect to the region. We remember that they were boycotted by several Sunni countries. They don’t like Qatar at all. We’ll see how Qatar adapt to this reality and I’m sure they will.

Sarah Stern: Do you believe that the Iraqi Kurds might actually fight against the Islamic Republic?

Amir: No. I think that the goal and Prime Minister Netanyahu said it is not to divide Iran, so have a change of regime. We’re not looking to make Iran the next Syria. When I was interviewed a week or two ago about all this news about the Kurds organizing, I said, no guys, it’s not as serious as it might seem. But when the people will be called to get out and take over their country the minorities in Iran definitely have an important role and they will be very proactive. 50% of Iran is minorities. You have many groups, 25% are Azeris, and you have Baluchis and Kurds and Arabs and so on. There are going to be an important part of this process of change of regime.

Sarah Stern: Great. Meanwhile, while Israel is taking on Iran you’re also going north to Hezbollah. Do you believe that Hezbollah can actually be dismantled in Lebanon?

Amir: The key to dismantling Hezbollah is the change of regime Iran. The moment Iran doesn’t support Hezbollah it doesn’t have any viability. Now, Israel, in order to dismantle Hezbollah is targeting all its centers of gravity. The most important one is Iran. This is the key. This connect Iran from Hezbollah. It’s pretty much game over. The second thing that Israel is doing is destroying completely Hezbollah’s capability to pay money and be sustainable economically. The first attack was on the banks, this couple of days we attacked gas station that produce money to Hezbollah. So we’re taking from Hezbollah all its economic assets in a way that they cannot be sustained economically. We took from them Iran in a way that not only they cannot get money, but also not capabilities and they cannot renew their weapons and so on. So everything they should they cannot produce because they’re not getting any more weapons. We took from them another asset, which is the population that supports them. We took the whole Shia minority and mobilize them out of their homes, out of South Lebanon, out of the Dahiyeh in a way that puts a lot of pressure on Hezbollah and the uproot their base of support. As we’re doing that, of course we’re also attacking them fiercely and destroying their leadership and their capabilities while the ground forces are mostly defending Jewish Israeli towns along the border and distancing this threats from the border of Israel.

Sarah Stern: Can you describe what’s been going on at the Al-Qard Al-Hassan bank?

Amir: The bank basically was the bank that enabled the Hezbollah to launder money and get cash. And this is why all these places where the bank cooperated were bombarded.

Sarah Stern: Joseph Aoun has said that he was going to take on Hezbollah but meanwhile I think it’s only been talk and no action. It’s really been the idea.

Amir: I can say that Lebanon like all other countries understand where this is going and understand that Israel and the US are going to win decisively and they understand that the day after is the US that will be the major power in the region. They want to join the Abraham Accords they want to be part of this but they’re very, very weak. Maybe they have some motivation but the capabilities are disgraceful. It’s up to us to do the job. In this sense, it’s very similar Iran and Lebanon. Because also in Iran we can set the terms for a change of regime. It’s the Iranian people that need to do what they need to do to change their regime. In Lebanon, we can degrade dramatically Hezbollah. But it’s the Lebanese government that needs to take action at a certain point and take over their country. Now, looking at Lebanon, they have to understand something very simple. There are two scenarios. One scenario is that Lebanon is behaving like Syria, a non-functional country with no sovereignty and governance. In this reality, Israel might say, okay, if this is the reality we’ll take a big part of Lebanon, control it from now and forever like we’re doing in Syria and that’s it. This is not a good option for Lebanon. The other option is that they actually get their acts together. Show governance and sovereignty and deal with Hezbollah once we degrade them enough and then we can talk peace agreements. Abraham Accords, prosperity, peace, and then probably Israeli soldiers won’t be inside the Lebanon.

Sarah Stern: Do you think that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Turkey is waiting in the wings to become the next major threat against the state of Israel?

Amir: I think that all the world when it looks at the capabilities of Israel and the US are thinking twice if they really want to challenge us. I don’t think at least in the period of time that Trump is the president that Turkey can really do anything. By the way Tehran is 1500 kilometers from Israel and we’re doing their whatever we want. Ankara is 800 kilometers. It’s much closer. I wouldn’t advise Adwan to challenge us is going to end like Khamenei. But I don’t think he has the capability or the will to do it. Looking at how powerful Israel is and what we’re able to do.

Sarah Stern: Do you have any final words that you would like to tell us, just about the resolution of this war, what we’re hoping for and just how long that you think this will continue until we’ll see a resolution?

Amir: I think the conditions to have a decisive win have been set. We’re controlling the skies, we’re controlling the seas, we have the wheel, the munitions, the capabilities we’re fighting hand to hand with the US. And we have a whole set of targets that we’re dealing with, which are completely dismantling Iranian regime and all its capabilities. In this reality it’s just a matter of time if we continue doing what we’re doing, until they will have to surrender unconditionally. They’re not going to be able to sustain this reality and that everything they have is wiped out. Also there will be a moment when the US with the help of Israel will take over the strain and maybe even Kharg Island where all their economy is based on. Once you really close on them militarily and also economically it’s game over. So they stand no chance. Now it’s just a matter of time until we reach our goals. Then the question is really what kind of process of change of regime will happen. I’m very confident that there will be a change of regime. I’m already planning next year my trip to Tehran.

Sarah Stern: Wonderful. Brigadier General Amir Avivi is always a supreme pleasure and honor to have you. Thank you so much.

Amir: My pleasure.
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