Breaking the Paradigm in the Middle East Transcript

Disclaimer: This transcript is an edited version version of a transcript created using AI technology and may not reflect 100% accuracy.

The video can be found here.

Sarah Stern: Good afternoon, and good evening to those in Jerusalem. Today is day 494 of Israel’s multi-front war in the Middle-East. Today, we are honored to host our dear friend and colleague, Alex Traiman. Alex was one of the journalists selected to return to Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after his recent visit to the US. Alex was also chosen to question both the President and the Prime Minister at the White House Press conference. Alex is the CEO and Jerusalem Bureau chief at the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS) and he is host of Jerusalem Minute. Alex is a seasoned Israeli journalist and documentary filmmaker. His films include the outstanding film, Iranian. He is an expert on Israeli politics and US-Israel relations and has interviewed Israeli leaders, US Senators and other top political figures. He has been interviewed by the BBC, Bloomberg, CBS, NBC, Fox, Newsmax and many other networks. His JNS editorials and articles have been picked up by the New York Post, Newsmax and other outlets.

Alex, in your most recent column you wrote, ”Just two weeks after Trump entered his second term of office, Israel’s strategic position has changed dramatically.” Can you explain what you meant by that?

Alex Traiman: Absolutely. I think the state of Israel now has the complete backing of the United States of America, the world’s strongest superpower. I only can imagine what would have happened if President Trump had lost the 2024 election. If Kamala Harris had become president, her advisors would have become part of her administration. Many of them have long anti-Israel, pro-Iran and pro-Palestinian records. They would have become leaders in the National Security Establishment, the State Department and elsewhere.

The drone footage and satellite pictures reporting coming out of Gaza are showing the level of utter devastation in the Gaza Strip. I think that Israel would have been on a fast track towards a diplomatic tsunami with a Harris administration. The Prime Minister came to the United States back in July to address the joint sessions of Congress. At that time, he met with Biden, who had just bowed out of the race, and then with Kamala Harris. I was in Washington and I was briefed by the Prime Minister. I can tell you there was a lot of tension and anxiety during that trip and that this trip was totally different. This time, there was really a feeling that Israel is being backed by a true friend. We are already witnessing President Trump talking about resettling Gazans. This is a complete reversal of the policy of the Biden administration which doubled down on the idea that not a single Gazan would be allowed to leave Gaza.

As regards Iran, the Biden administration tried to prevent Israel from striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. We have yet to see what the Trump administration does with respect to Iran. That said, I think they will provide a lot more backing than the Biden administration did. I think they will be far more supportive of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s strategy for a total victory.

Sarah Stern: Alex, you are very friendly with many in the Prime Minister’s inner circle, including your former contributing editor, Caroline Glick. Caroline is now Prime Minister Netanyahu’s international affairs advisor. What is the opinion in Netanyahu’s inner circle about President Trump’s idea of US ownership of the Gaza Strip and of making the Gaza Strip into the Riviera of the Mediterranean?

Alex Traiman: I think the Prime Minister was not surprised by President Trump’s idea of relocating Gazans outside of the strip. I believe that the Prime Minister spoke about this with the President before he discussed it publicly. In the run up to the US election, the Prime Minister remained pretty vague about what he meant by total victory. He was clear that it included the return of the hostages and the guarantee that Hamas would no longer run the Gaza Strip but he was vague about who would govern Gaza Strip after the war. I do not think he was surprised when President Trump said that he wanted to see Gazans resettled in Egypt or Jordan. However, I do think the part where the President suggested the US should take ownership in Gaza was unscripted. The idea that Gaza would be turned into the Riviera on the Mediterranean may have been a surprise to Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Obviously, if Gaza is going to be completely rebuilt, it should be built nicely and the US could accomplish it. That said, we do not know if President Trump was articulating an extreme bargaining position, or if he was serious about the US owning Gaza. If yes, obvious questions of property ownership and of sovereignty which would need to be addressed. Even if the President is serious about having some ownership of Gaza, I do not think the United States of America is getting into the development business. I do not think American contractors are going to be willing to come in and bulldoze the wreckage in Gaza and lay foundations for new buildings. However, Israel wants to re-establish sovereignty over the Gaza Strip, a sovereignty that we gave up in 2005 when we evacuated 8,500 Jewish residents from 21 thriving Jewish communities in Gush Katif. So, we have to wait and see what the President really means and I think it is all going to start to become clearer in the weeks ahead.

Interviewer: Unfortunately, the response from the Arab world to President Trump’s proposal has not been very favorable. Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman has affirmed that his nation’s position is clear and explicit and does not allow for a different interpretation under any circumstances. Jordan’s foreign minister, Marwan Marsha, called Trump’s plan to resettle Palestinians and Jordan an existential issue and not something that Jordanians would entertain.’ President El-Sisi of Egypt postponed his upcoming meeting with President Trump. Given the immediate reactions from many of the Arab states, do you think that the Qataris, the Emiratis or the Saudis will agree to help fund Trump’s plan for Gaza?

Alex Traiman: There are two issues that need to be resolved in this regard. The first is to find countries who will allow the Gazans to live in their territory. The second is to identify those who will help to fund the resettlement or rebuilding of the Gaza Strip. I think Jordan and Egypt are being looked at as countries which would host the Palestinians, rather than provide funding for the transition. If they do leave the Gaza Strip, Egypt is an obvious place for the Gazans. Gaza shares its southern border with Egypt. Until now, Egypt has locked that border and has not allowed a single Gazan to enter the Sinai Peninsula, even though it is a very large territory which is mostly empty. Even prior to this war, ideas have been floated about extending the Gaza Strip into the Sinai Peninsula. The idea was that this would give the population of Gaza room to grow. However, the Muslim Brotherhood is a very strong faction in Egypt, and Hamas is related to the Muslim Brotherhood. President El-Sisi took over Egypt from the Muslim Brotherhood and does not want the Palestinians to come into Egypt and destabilize it.

Jordan has a population of about 11 million people, around six million of whom are Palestinian. Many argue that Jordan is a Palestinian state irrespective of whether King Abdullah of Jordan acknowledges it or not. However, King Abdullah is weary about losing additional support from the Palestinians in Jordan. As such, he does not want to be seen as facilitating the resettlement of the Palestinians from Gaza. He does not want to risk antagonizing the Palestinians in Jordan. He remembers Black September when Palestinian factions tried to unseat his father, King Hussein, in 1970.

Egypt and Jordan have valid reasons for not wanting the Gazans to move to their countries, but President Trump has a lot of leverage over both of them. Jordan receives over $1.5 billion in foreign aid from the United States, although the President did announce recently that he was freezing foreign aid to all countries except Israel and Egypt. Jordan’s intelligence services also receive millions of dollars in undisclosed amounts from the United States, including from the CIA. Egypt too receives a tremendous amount of military aid financing from the United States.

Egypt has been one of the casualties of this war. Houthi attacks in the Suez Canal aimed to put an economic siege on Israel, but ended up shutting down the majority of commercial traffic through the Suez Canal. Ships sailing from China to Europe no longer pass through the Suez Canal and they now sail around the southern tip of Africa. The Suez Canal is one of the top sources of revenue for Egypt and so they have lost a lot of money. They recently borrowed $1.5 billion in emergency loans.

If President Trump waves economic carrots and sticks in front of the leaders of both Jordan and Egypt, I think there is a good chance that they might open up their borders and accept at least some part of the Palestinian population. If any country actually agrees to this, we might see the Saudis support Trump’s proposal. Publicly, the Saudis always claim that a pathway towards a Palestinian state must parallel normalization with Israel. That has always been the Saudis public posture. However, what they really think depends on who you ask. Israelis like Netanyahu and Ron Dermer, the Minister of Strategic Affairs, claim the Saudis do not care much about the Palestinians.

The Saudis do not say that a Palestinian state has to be declared right away, rather they talk about some pathway towards a Palestinian state. We should ask what is meant by a pathway toward a Palestinian state. Does the Palestinian state have to be created between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea? As an aside, the Jordan river and Mediterranean Sea are what Hamas supporters scream about on the streets of Western capitals even though they have no idea which river and sea they are actually referring to. Maybe the Palestinian state can be created someplace in Egypt or Saudi Arabia, or maybe people are going to realize that Jordan is actually the Palestinian state.

Interviewer: A few hundred thousand Palestinians in Egypt or Jordan, may not change the overall demographics in either country in a significant manner. People should be allowed freedom of movement and the ability to seek better lives for their families. They should be offered a humanitarian corridor if they want to leave Gaza. This is how the opportunity should be framed. We are not discussing a situation of a forced transfer of a population, or ethnic cleansing. The Palestinians in Gaza have been considered refugees since UNRWA was established. Do you think it makes sense to at least give people who want to leave, the opportunity to do so? Do you agree that allowing the first few hundred thousand Gazans to move to Jordan or Egypt would not have a significant impact on the dynamics of either country?

Alex Traiman: Well, the Prime Minister has been using language similar to yours. He maintains that many Palestinians would leave Gaza if they could and that they were clamoring to leave even before the war started. The pictures and the videos coming out of Gaza show they do not have anywhere to live there anymore. During the war, Yahya Sinwar and his fellow Hamas terrorists ran around in the tunnels under Giza like sewer rats. As a result of what they instigated, the Palestinians are now faced with the above-ground wreckage in Gaza. Where are Gazans going to live in Gaza? Steve Wikoff and the President have referred to Gaza as a demolition site. They maintain it will take 10 to 15 years to rebuild it and they are speaking as real estate developers.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, over six million Ukrainians fled the conflict and they did not all go to the same place. Even Israel took in over 30,000 Ukrainian refugees. So, it is not only Jordan, Egypt or Saudi Arabia who can take in Palestinians. That said, I am not hearing calls from countries offering to take in Palestinians. Why are countries around the world not taking in the Palestinians? I think it reflects what they think of them. Nobody cares about the Palestinians. If they did, they would want to provide a better life from them amidst this horrific suffering. Even though their suffering is self-induced, they are suffering. It seems like the entire world wants to keep them in Gaza to be used as pawns to de-legitimize and demonize the Jewish state. Apparently, they hate the Jews more than they love the Palestinians.

Interviewer: Exactly. We all watched the emaciated state in which Hamas released Eli Sharabi, Or Levy and Ohad Ben Ami after 491 hellish days of captivity in Gaza. Of course, Eli Sharabi came home to learn that his wife and two teenage daughters were murdered on October 7^th. Eli, Or and Ohad were innocent Israeli civilians who were released in exchange for 183 Palestinian terrorists. Hamas official Abba Abida has now said that Israel is obstructing the ceasefire. How does one respond to something like that? Israel just withdrew from the Netzarim corridor. What is your opinion on that?

Alex Traiman: The hostage release deal is unjust and immoral at its core. There is no way to square that peg. It is obviously a completely unbalanced deal. It is true that Israel arrested Gazans during the war for the purpose of trading them for the hostages. Israel had to take capital it could trade later. It is also true that many of the prisoners being released were imprisoned for acts of terror committed against Israelis prior to October 7^th. A good percentage of them have blood on their hands, and many are serving consecutive life sentences. A lot of them are going right back to where they came from. They are returning to their communities in eastern sections of Jerusalem or in what Israelis call Judea and Samaria and the rest of the world calls the West Bank.

Statistically speaking, it is very probable these terrorists will commit acts of terror again. I think that the Prime Minister and his team see this as a bump in the road. Currently, there is a tremendous sense of urgency around getting the hostages back. 1200 people already died and not that many hostages remain. The Israelis care deeply about the hostages. That illustrates how much Israelis care about every single individual and the extreme ends that they will go to get their people back.

I do think you have to view the deal in context. Israel estimates it has killed around 18,000 terrorists over the course of the war. If this deal goes through in its entirety, Israel will have released a total of 1,900 terrorists.  We will still have reduced the terrorist population by a net of 16,000 overall. The impact of freeing these terrorists also has to be judged based on what happens after they are freed. The President is now talking about resettling the Gazans and making sure Hamas is no longer in power. Well, Hamas is holding the hostages and we have to determine how to incentivize Hamas to release the hostages. Israel could and would have rescued them if they could have. They did rescue a handful of them in very daring and incredible operations. I think they managed to rescue about eight hostages but many more are being released in these hostage deals. We have to trade whatever we can to get the hostages back.

Interviewer: President Trump said that if the remaining hostages are not released there will be hell to pay for Hamas. What do you think he means by that?

Alex Traiman: The President and Steve Wikoff pushed the Prime Minister into a deal which was originally presented by the Biden administration. I think they now realize that they pushed Israel into a bad deal. They have been very clear about it and I think they may even regret it. They wanted a foreign policy win before Trump’s inauguration. You can see that the President is now changing his tune about the deal. It appears he no longer believes the US has to be committed to the framework and Biden’s negotiators are no longer at the table. You heard him say that if all the hostages are not released by Saturday, all hell will break loose.

At the same time, Hamas is now claiming that Israel is violating the ceasefire. I do not think that the President is buying that. Certainly, Gaza is a very tense area and Israel has pulled back from the population centers. As you mentioned, Israel is withdrawing from the Netzarim Corridor as well. The Netzarim Corridor is a road Israel paved right through the middle of the Gaza Strip in order to be able to maintain security there. Israel is withdrawing from there and that is a big deal.

There have been claims of ceasefire deal violations almost every week. This is part of the psychological manipulation game Hamas is playing, and it is the only card left Hamas has left to play. The first hostages they released looked the healthiest. The President noted that the hostages that were let go most recently, resembled Holocaust survivors. It is probable that the ones still being held look even worse than they do. This is horrific and it is good that the President is changing his tone. I think that Israel will go back into the Gaza strip if President Trump gives them the green light.

Pressure on Hamas and Qatar is the only thing that will get Hamas to release the hostages. Anthony Blinken admitted this in his exit interview with the New York Times. He said that Hamas hardened its positions whenever it perceived international pressure was turning against Israel. Now Hamas is hearing that the President is ready to empty out Gaza completely and remove Hamas from the strip and from power. I do not know what’s going on in the negotiation rooms right now but I am certain the Israelis are also discussing some carrots to convince Hamas’ leadership to surrender.

Minister Dermer is Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs. Dermer is basically serving as Deputy Prime Minister of Israel right now. He and Netanyahu discussed an exile plan for the end of the war. Under this plan, if Hamas agrees to surrender and return all the hostages, their leadership will be allowed to go to Qatar, Turkey or elsewhere. I suspect that is what the Israeli team is pushing for right now and it sounds like Trump may be on board as well. If we do not wave a carrot in front of Hamas and we offer them nothing, they will not release the hostages. We have to wait and see how this develops over the next week. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Abdullah is also going to be telling.

Israel is preparing to reenter the Gaza Strip. Many of the troops were on a well-deserved leave and they are now being called back and mobilized. If Hamas sees we are serious about re-starting the war, I think we may achieve a faster breakthrough and we may secure the return of all the hostages, God willing.

Interviewer: There are 17 more hostages scheduled for release in Stage One of the deal. Do you believe they are still alive?

Alex Traiman: Phase One of the deal was supposed to secure the release of 33 hostages over six weeks. According to the Israeli estimates, 25 of the 33 are still alive and they understand that eight are now dead. The deal was structured so that women, children, and men over 50 would be released first. The Bibas mother and children have not been released, and I think that is an unfortunate indication that they may no longer be alive. There is also grave concern about the health status of the remaining hostages. The three that we saw released this week were severely malnourished. They will probably have permanent health problems based on what they were subjected to in captivity. If the others are alive, it is believed their conditions may be even worse than the three who were released last week.

Interviewer: Do you believe that Israel and Hamas will reach Phase Two of the ceasefire deal? When was Israel supposed to withdraw from Gaza completely?

Alex Traiman: I do not think they will reach Phase Two of the deal. The Prime Minister and his team were talking about some kind of extension of Phase One, but the President is speaking a totally different language right now. Obviously, Israel is happy that they got back some hostages as part of Phase One of the deal. If Israel can get the hostages back without releasing more terrorists, that would be better. If Israel can get back all of the hostages quickly, that is much better.

The President referred to the “drip and drab” release of the hostages. The reason the deal was structured this way is because the Biden administration wanted to guarantee that Israel would hold fire for six weeks. The only way they could guarantee that was to negotiate the release of three hostages each week. That was their way of keeping the IDF from finishing the job. Now, the new President has said it is going to be up to Israel to decide if they want to end the ceasefire. So, I think that there is a strong likelihood the ceasefire deal ends unless some kind of a new agreement is reached.

As I mentioned, such an agreement would secure the release of all the remaining hostages and total Hamas surrender in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and Hamas leadership being allowed to leave Gaza. I think that that is what the Netanyahu team would like to see happen. I am hoping that is the vision for the Trump team as well.

Interviewer: Unfortunately, there are still elements within the foreign policy establishment that continue to view the Palestinian Authority (PA) as the alternative to Hamas. PA President Muhammad Abbas said yesterday that he would end the Pay-for-Slay program, the program that incentivizes terror by lavishly rewarding murderers for killing Israelis and Jews. Do you think Abbas is sincere in his offer to end Pay-for-Slay? According to Palestinian Media Watch, many Palestinian prisoners leave jail as millionaires. Do you think the PA will just move the money from one fund to another and continue to incentivize the murder of Jews?

Alex Traiman: Right. Around 7% of the entire PA budget is spent funding Pay-for-Slay stipends for terrorists. They are literally incentivizing terrorism. They are now saying that perhaps some kind of NGOs would be paying those stipends, so they are likely moving from direct to indirect payments to incentivize terror. I will not believe they have stopped Pay-for-Slay payments until I see proof of it. That said, I think it is telling that Mahmoud Abbas is trying to figure out some way to appease the Trump administration and I am hope the Trump administration designates them as a terror organization.

The PA incites violence and finances terror against Jews. This was the group selected by the Biden administration to rule the Gaza Strip. The PA and Arab League obviously supported this idea. We are now seeing a complete turnaround on this and the current president may even put the PA out of business. Last night, the Prime Minister told the Israeli cabinet that Israel is not going to re-live the mistakes of Oslo ever again. Oslo refers to the accords that created the PA and put the Israelis and Palestinians on a path to a two-state solution. The Prime Minister is saying that Oslo was a mistake which Israel will not revisit. So, if the President manages to clear out the Gaza Strip, it will change the demographic reality between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. I think that this will put an end to the talk of dividing the tiny state of Israel into pieces to facilitate the creation of a Palestinian state within the territory that is meant to be the State of Israel.

Interviewer: We really have to give President Trump credit for breaking failed paradigms. Do you believe that the Palestinians will overthrow King Abdullah? Will Jordan be a threat to Israel down the road?

Alex Traiman: Israeli security experts say it is a matter of when, not if, King Abdulllah will be deposed. The Palestinians will very likely take over Jordan even if it happens in 10 or 20 years from now. Jordan is already a threat to Israel. We saw how both Iran and Turkey worked to destabilize Syria and we have witnessed Syrian refugees flooding into Northern Jordan to escape the chaos in Syria. If Iran can no longer work through Syria, it may try to destabilize Jordan. This is a very big threat to the region, and one of the reasons that Israel prefers Abdullah not get overthrown in the short term.

Abdullah relies on American aid and on Israeli intelligence to stay in power and he keeps the majority of Jordan terror free. We know what a Palestinian state in Jordan will look like by looking at Gaza. In fact, the Israeli Prime Minister said that Gaza was the pilot project for a Palestinian state. Abdullah is not a friend of Israel, but he has to work with both Israel and America to stay in power. In the meantime, it also suits Israel to have Abdullah remain in place.

The entirety of the land included under the British Mandate for so-called Palestine, was supposed to be for a Jewish state. It included all of today’s Israel and all of today’s Jordan. That land was then partitioned and 72% of it became Jordan. People talk about a two-state solution but they forget that 72% of the land intended for a Jewish national home, has already been partitioned. It is now Jordan. The majority of the people living there are of Palestinian descent. People talk about Israel being an apartheid state even though Jews are a majority here. They want Israel to become a Palestinian state but conveniently forget that the majority of Jordanian citizens are Palestinians. The Jordanians are governed by a Hashemite king yet no one refers to Jordan as an apartheid state. Jordan could become the Palestinian state. Of course, there is also the possibility of other solutions in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere.

Interviewer: Let’s head north to southern Lebanon for a moment. Yesterday, US National Security Council member, Brian Youth, said the ceasefire with Hezbollah is due to expire in exactly one week. We see photos showing people streaming back to southern Lebanon with Hezbollah flags and photos of deceased Hezbollah leaders. Do you think the ceasefire with Lebanon will hold after the 18^th? How can we convince the administration that we need stability in southern Lebanon to be able to protect Israel’s northern communities?

Alex Traiman: That is a question that I posed directly to the Prime Minister in Washington. He said the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon was intended to be temporary. Initially, it called for a drawdown of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon, over a period of 60 days. That deadline has already been extended with a revised deadline of February 18^th and it is clear that Israel wants to continue to postpone the drawdown of Israeli troops. The Prime Minister basically told me Israel will maintain its positions there but will also maintain the ceasefire. He basically intimated that Israel doesn’t want to return to all-out war with Hezbollah and Lebanon, but does want to protect the current status quo. This means Israel will make sure Hezbollah does not return south below the Litani River.

Morgan Ortega, the new US special envoy, said that the 18^th is still the deadline for the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon but we have to see what President Trump says. Thus far, he has said it will be up to Israel to decide if it needs to break its ceasefire in Gaza but we do not know yet what his position is regarding Lebanon.

I think the Prime Minister is happy that missiles, drones and rockets are not pummeling Israeli territory right now and I think that he is satisfied with the damage that Israel has done to Hezbollah’s senior and mid-level leadership. Israel decimated Hezbollah’s leadership in the beeper episode and Israeli airstrikes are drawing down their missile capabilities. Since Assad fell in Syria, Israel has taken out the Syrian military entirely and has basically shut Syria off from Iran. This means Iranian weapons and other supplies cannot reach Hezbollah via Syria. It prevents Hezbollah from rebuilding in southern Lebanon and from recreating its weapons capabilities. In summary, I think the Prime Minister would prefer to maintain a light Israeli presence in southern Lebanon and not restart full on fighting with Hezbollah.

Interviewer: Speaking of Syria, Alex, what are your views of Ahmed al-Sharaa or Mohammad al-Julani?

Alex Traiman: Al-Julani is a former Al-Qaeda member. The Biden administration said that he has reformed. Yasser Arafat was also said to have reformed. I think once a terrorist, always a terrorist. Al-Julani has not moved to the United States to become de-radicalized over a period of decades. He is operating in the same area he was before and he is part of a militant group backed by Turkey. Turkey sensed the vacuum in Syria and acted upon it. Israel reduced the Iranian threat significantly. Israel destroyed Iran’s air defenses and severely weakened Hezbollah, its’ forward-facing army in southern Lebanon. Iran no longer had the capacity to protect Assad and the Russians were distracted and unable to rescue him either. Assad fell. Turkey sensed the power vacuum in Syria and pushed Al-Julani forward. Al-Julani is very loyal to the Turks. Turkey may now try to establish a southern command post, which could threaten the state of Israel.

Interviewer: Right. As you know, Iran has threatened President Trump’s life at least twice. Iran has also threatened the lives of John Bolton, Mike Pompeo and Brian Hook. Do you think that President Trump will enable Israel to launch an attack on Iran?

Alex Traiman: It does not sound like a strike on Iran is the President’s first choice. That may be because he is concerned that Iran already has one or more nuclear weapons. The President stated that he would prefer to try and use economic sanctions to shut off the Iranian economy. He basically stated that Israel might strike if Iran does not agree to a deal that would see itself dismantle its own nuclear program. The Israeli Prime Minister has been talking directly to the Iranian public and telling them to take back their country from the repressive Islamic mullahs who have hijacked the future of Iran. Iran was once a country that was rich in culture and friendly to the state of Israel.

I do not know if the Netanyahu and the Trump teams agreed on everything during Netanyahu’s recent trip. My sources said that Israel got 93% of what they were hoping for. I am not sure what is included in the 7% area of disagreement. I have a feeling that if it includes anything, it might be the timetable for a strike against Iran and its nuclear facilities. That said, the Trump administration did release a number of weapons that were held up previously and they may also have sent Israel some weapons that the Biden administration never would have sent. If those weapons include bunker busting technologies, then the US is providing Israel with the ‘Mother of the Bombs’, the bunker busters that would allow them to target the deep underground Iranian nuclear infrastructure efficiently. In that case, the United States would be gearing Israel up to be able to strike Iran successfully.

Before Trump came into office, there were questions about whether a Trump administration would be willing to participate in a military strike against Iran. It seems as though Trump does not want American military involvement in the Middle East but would be very happy for Israel to do the job if needed. We do not know what timetable is under consideration but we are hearing reports that Iran is racing towards the bomb. Obviously, we have been warning about this for the last 20 years but now reports in the New York Times indicate that they’re even looking at putting together a cruder, faster weapon. So, we are obviously playing with fire here and the next several weeks are going to be critical in determining whether Israel will strike Iran.

Interviewer: Right. Okay. We have received some amazing questions from the audience, which I will read. President Trump announced that if all hostages are not returned by Saturday, all hell will break loose. What could Israel do that it has not already done to secure the release of the hostages? Similarly, what can the US do that has not already done in this regard?

Alex Traiman: Israel did not finish the job of destroying Hamas in Gaza. The Israelis destroyed 18 or 19 of the 24 organized Hamas battalions, but Hamas has consolidated its remaining fighters since Israel’s successful Rafah operation. When Israel says that it destroyed a battalion it means that it killed or injured 50% of the battalion and neutralized the rest. This means that half of the fighters from that battalion may still be able to continue fighting for Hamas. Hamas managed to consolidate its fighters when Israel pivoted.

At certain points in the war, Israel placed the Gaza operation on low burn. They did this to be able to take care of Hezbollah which was pummeling them in the North. At that time, the Israelis determined Hamas no longer posed much of a threat to the Israeli home front and diverted most of their military to the North to deal with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Since then, Israel has been running lower scale operations inside Gaza.

Unfortunately, Hamas still operates in Gaza. We witnessed this when they recently paraded the hostages. Hamas terrorists continue to march through Gaza in full uniform waving Kalashnikov rifles. The Prime Minister said that Hamas still has as many as 10,000 Kalashnikov rifles. They probably still have a few thousand rockets remaining. Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, but now Muhammad Sinwar, his brother, is running operations in Gaza. So, there is still work to be done to completely eliminate Hamas as a military threat to Israel. Israel needs to ensure they cannot take command of the Palestinians in Gaza, or anywhere else for that matter. I am sure that Egypt or Jordan would want to ensure Hamas was eliminated before taking in Palestinian civilians. They would want to ensure there was no-one left to smuggle weapons across the border. They would want Israel to do that job.

Interviewer: The Shah of Iran was relocated after the 1979 revolution. Do you think it might be necessary to relocate King Abdullah and where could he go?

Alex Traiman: I still think it is in the immediate short-term interest of Israel and the United States to keep King Abdullah in Jordan. I do not think this administration wants to see the overthrow of Abdullah. President Trump even showed him the respect of being the first Arab leader to be invited to the White House, as has been the case over the years with different administrations. Netanyahu was the first leader invited by the Trump administration but Abdullah has prided himself on being the first Arab leader invited time and again by new US administrations.

I think they see Abdullah as a useful sort of ally. He is not a totally reliable ally but better than some of the alternatives. Let’s be straight about it, he does allow the incitement against Israel on the Palestinian street in his country but he does not allow terrorists to parade around Jordan. This is different from what we see in Syria or in Lebanon, Gaza and even in some of the Palestinian Territories. So, I do not think the Trump administration is going to try and relocate King Abdullah.

Interviewer: One of our audience members noted that Canada has offered to take in 5,000 Gazans, and he would expect to see in Canada what has been happening in Europe. Do you anticipate these western nations might be subject to upheavals and negative repercussions as a result of taking in the Palestinians from Gaza? Are they naïve in not anticipating this?

Alex Traiman: I do think it is not a bad approach to spread out the population and to do it as far away from Israel as possible. I do think that countries should agree to take in limited numbers of Gazans. Obviously, those taking in much greater numbers would be subject to a very serious threat. Israel has said that it is looking into two different places from which Palestinians could leave Gaza. The first is at the port of Ashdod, around 30 miles north of Gaza. The second option is the Ramon Airport, an airport near Eilat. If Egypt refuses to open the border, these are two options from which Palestinians can depart Gaza but someone has to be the first to accept a group of them.

Someone has to be the first to accept Palestinians. You mentioned that Canada is willing to accept Gazans and I saw in the comment that Australia might be willing to do it as well. Several months ago, there were reports that Chechnya was preparing a city for Palestinians. It might also be possible for some Gazans to settle in Turkey. Our Turkish expert and scholar, Harold Road, told me that there are laws on the books in Turkey which provide benefits for Palestinians immigrating to Turkey. Maybe some could be resettled in Qatar, and in the rest of the Arab world. The Houthis in Yemen have been fighting for the Palestinians since October 7^th, maybe they should win them.

Interviewer: How might Russia, China, and North Korea respond if the US or Israel was to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities? What response could we expect from them if that happened?

Alex Traiman: I think their response depends on the diplomatic threats that are placed on them by the Trump administration. I do not think Israel would conduct a surprise attack and I think that Trump would make his expectations very clear ahead of the attack. If Israel does strike Iran, they are going to advise the Trump administration beforehand and hopefully get the green light to proceed. Contrary to the Biden and Obama administrations, it is very unlikely the Trump administration would leak Israeli battle plans about a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and I think Trump would use all his leverage to make sure Russia and China stay out of the conflict.

If Israel attacks Iran, I do not think the protest campaigns will be comparable to those we have seen since Israel retaliated against Hamas in Gaza. Israel does not need to go building to building to root out Iranian terrorists in Iran as they did in Gaza. In the case of an attack on Iran, Israel will be dealing with the existential threat of nuclear weapons in the hands of a leadership that calls to wipe Israel off the face of the map. I think Israel would perform a very limited strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and I am hopeful that Russia and China would stay out of it.

We should not forget that Iran was originally estimated to be holding as many as 3,000 ballistic missiles. Since the war started, they have fired between 400 and 500 of them at Israel. That means they have more than 2,500 ballistic missiles remaining. They targeted Israel’s military facilities with the missiles they already fired. Their specific target was an Air Force base in the South. Their missiles are accurate within around 300 meters, but they are not precision accurate. This is why they failed to do much damage to the Air Force base they targeted.

That said, Iran could decide to target Tel Aviv or another population center with its remaining 2,500 ballistic missiles. This could kill thousands of Israelis and do extensive damage to the home front. Obviously, Israelis would escape to their safe rooms, but the missiles would still cause tremendous damage in Israel. So, striking Iran is not a riskless operation. However, if Israel does decide to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, the level of threat from an Iranian retaliation is much lower than it was when Hezbollah and Hamas were still at full strength.

Interviewer: Thank you so much, Alex Traiman. I think everybody should support and follow Alex at https://www.jns.org/. JNS is hosting a wonderful policy conference at the end of May. I think anybody who can make it to Jerusalem should definitely attend. I also want to remind everybody that our EMET staff are on Capitol Hill every day. Since Oslo, we have been addressing the failure of the Land for Peace paradigm. Unfortunately, the Israelis have had to deal with the implication of this policy. In a world of misinformation, we provide accurate facts and in-depth analysis for our policymakers, and they really do appreciate us.

We appreciate you, Alex Traiman, and all that you do to shed light on extremely important issues and facts and your opinion pieces are brilliant. Thank you so much, Alex.

Alex Traiman: Thank you for all the work you do. You’ve been providing Congress members a critical education on Capitol Hill for as long as I have known you. Your organization is a little powerhouse that punches well above its weight. I know that every dollar that comes into EMET goes a very long way and much further than it would at some of the larger legacy Jewish organizations. You guys are little rock stars on Capitol Hill that are doing the work that unfortunately others really are not doing. Keep up the great work.

Interviewer: Thank you. You as well. Thank you so much, Alex.

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