Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Beyond: Looking at 5785 with Clear Eyes Transcript

Disclaimer: This transcript is an edited version version of a transcript created using AI technology and may not reflect 100% accuracy.

The video can be found here. 

Sarah Stern: Good morning. My name is Sarah Stern. I am the founder and president of EMET. Welcome to a topical, timely, and important webinar. Today marks exactly one year and two days since the Islamic Republic and its terror proxies imposed a war on the state of Israel. It is the longest war in Israel’s history. It has been a very somber week, and we must never forget the 101 hostages trapped in those horrific terror tunnels beneath Gaza. Unfortunately, some of the 101 hostages are no longer alive. The sadistic, barbaric events of that day have left open wounds from which most Israelis will never fully recover. We must never delude ourselves and fall for the fancy rhetoric of many members of the foreign policy establishment. We must never forget Israel’s enemies are seeking the total eradication of the state of Israel.

We know Israel was taken by surprise by Hamas’ attack on October 7^th and that Hezbollah joined the fray the next day. Through their attacks, Hezbollah succeeded in displacing tens of thousands of residents of Israel’s North. We have watched Israel try and pick up the pieces from the horrific devastation of October 7^th. We marvel at the courage, determination, and resilience of the Israeli people. We are especially in awe of the brave men and women of the IDF. Israel has successfully decimated a great deal of Hamas and Hezbollah’s infrastructure and its ground forces are operating in Lebanon as we speak. Even with the progress Israel has made against these terror groups, there are still many challenges that lie ahead.

How can Israel re-establish safety and security on its northern border so its citizens can return home? How can Israel ensure a Hamas-like structure will not re-emerge in Gaza? Can Israel continue to fight on both of those fronts and still succeed in eliminating the threats from within Judea and Samaria? Will Israel manage to attack the Iranian nuclear infrastructure or its oil bases? Can Israel depend on its anyone of its allies as it works to eradicate the threats against it? Here to answer these questions and more, is our esteemed friend, General Amir Avivi.

General Avivi is the founder and chairman of the Israel Defense Security Forum (IDSF). While serving in the military, Amir held a series of very senior roles in the IDF, including Deputy Controller of the Security Forces, Director of the Office of the Chief of Staff, Deputy Commander of the Gaza Division, Commander of the Saga Division, Commander of Battalion 605, and Commander of the School of Combat Engineering.

Amir, yesterday Hamas figurehead Khaled Meshaal said that Hamas will rise from the ashes like a phoenix. He said this from the comfort of his home in Qatar. What is the state of Hamas in Gaza today?

Amir Avivi: Israel has basically dismantled Hamas’ army and its brigades. We have destroyed their industries and closed the Egyptian border. This means they cannot bring new capabilities into Gaza to help them regroup and reorganize. Israel is constantly attacking, degrading and toppling their leaders and commanders. The IDF is doing this both in the field and elsewhere. As soon as they try to reorganize, we attack and prevent it from happening. This is what we are doing now in the northern part of Gaza. On October 7^th, they tried really hard to carry out an attack. At the end of the day, all they managed was to shoot off a few rounds.

A year ago, they fired 4,300 rockets at us. This year, they succeeded in shooting fewer than 10. So, Hamas is being destroyed systematically. Israel is now facing the challenge of how to dismantle the organization as a governmental entity. To do this, we need to control the humanitarian aid. We need to ensure it gets delivered to Palestinian civilians and not to Hamas. That is why we are moving all of the Palestinian civilians in Gaza to the humanitarian designated zone. This will allow the IDF to place a siege on all the other areas of Gaza and ensure the terrorists can no longer divert any humanitarian aid. The objective is to speed up our ability to destroy them. Israel is not going to stop until Hamas is eradicated and until we bring back all the hostages. Hamas is observing how fast we are dismantling Hezbollah. This makes them more discouraged. They understand no one is coming to help them. Hezbollah cannot help them and Iran cannot help them. At the end of the day, they will be destroyed.

Sarah: Excellent. We knew that the war in the north was inevitable. We were very fearful of the 150,000 to 200,000 missiles that we presumed Hezbollah possessed. We were also aware that some of them were precision guided missiles. What is the state of Hezbollah’s firepower today?

Amir: Hezbollah is left with around 20% of its original capabilities. The IDF destroyed most of its weapons and continues to degrade those that remain. The IDF toppled Hezbollah’s leadership in two weeks. This includes their strategic leadership and most of their field commanders. As a result, their whole command and control structure has been completely disrupted and they no longer have anybody giving commands. They have been incapacitated and they are aware they are in the process of being destroyed.

For the past year I have been saying that moving from defense to offense in Lebanon would significantly change the situation in our favor. However, even I am surprised at the level of success Israel has achieved recently. It is amazing what the IDF and Mossad are doing together. I think the whole region and the whole world is looking at Israel in astonishment. People are amazed at what Israel is able to do. In a very short time, Israel has come close to dismantling the two strongest proxy forces Iran has been building for 20 years. These successes will enable Israel to focus on the next steps and on Iran.

Sarah: It appears that most of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces have been totally obliterated. Israel has assassinated both Hassan Nasrallah and his heir apparent, Hashem Safieddine. They created a rudderless ship. Where are the Radwan forces and the rest of Hezbollah getting their commands from? Is it directly from Tehran?

Amir: Yeah, everything comes from Tehran. This includes the weapons, guidance and money. However, the Iranians no longer have anyone to speak to because Israel has eliminated their contacts in Hamas and Hezbollah. The IDF is attacking constantly. Hamas has around 5% of the total rockets they had before October 7^th while Hezbollah has around 20% of their weapons remaining. The situation in Israel is completely the opposite. Israeli industries are producing more and more munitions. I met yesterday with the Ministry of Defense and afterwards with the CEO of the Ministry. I asked the CEO how we are doing with our munitions. He told me that the situation is amazing. We started with very few munitions. Since October 7^th, we have used up a huge amount of what we had, but now we have many, many more. This is because the pace at which Israel is producing munitions is getting stronger every day. It is unbelievable.

Our enemies are losing their capabilities. They are left with very few munitions, with no leadership and no headquarters. We are moving towards a decisive win. We still have difficult moments and we still have challenges but I think the coming year is going to look completely different from this one.

Sarah: On October 1^st, the Islamic Republic launched about 181 to 200 missiles at Israeli targets. None of them did any major damage. This was the second time Iran has attempted a direct attack on the Jewish state, with the first occurring on April 13, 2024. Iran and its main terror proxy, Hezbollah, appear to have been weakened. Do you believe now would be an opportune moment for Israel to launch an attack on some of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure or its oil fields or both?

Amir: Israel has four choices regarding its attack on Iran. It can topple the leadership of Iran as it did with Hezbollah and Hamas. It can attack Iran’s oil refineries. It can attack their nuclear program or it can attack their military capabilities. Israel can also combine more than one of the four choices in its response to Iran’s attack.

I am not sure that we are going to attack Iran’s nuclear sites right now. However, I can say decisively that we need to get rid of Iran’s nuclear capabilities this year. I do not know if it will happen this week, or in four months’ time but we will have to deal with Iran. We will get rid of Hamas and Hezbollah or we will weaken them dramatically. After that, we will divert our attention toward Iran. Of course, Israel will also need to continue to focus on internal security. In addition to Iran, Israel will continue to focus on the West bank, or Judea, Samaria, and on the Israeli Arabs. Strategically speaking however, our whole focus will be on Iran. I think that we are definitely going to destroy their capabilities but the question is when. Irrespective, they are going to be hit very, very hard.

I think Iran shot around 20% of their missiles at us and nobody was hurt. We managed to dismantle Hezbollah in two weeks and we now understand that our enemies are much weaker than what we had thought. Society, the government, the cabinet and the military have to agree that this is our moment and we can win decisively. We have to agree and we have to attack and create a completely different future for our kids and for Israel.

Sarah: So how much opposition is there against Hezbollah in Lebanon? Do you know how many Christians and Sunni Muslims have not bought into Hezbollah’s ideology?

Amir: There is a lot of opposition amongst the Sunnis, Christians, the Maronites and the Druze. Israel is weakening Hezbollah and toppling their leadership and capabilities. This emboldens other groups inside Lebanon and they may contemplate challenging Hezbollah. Israel is sending them messages. The prime minister is talking to the Lebanese people and letting them know that this is their moment. He is letting them know that Israel will help them in getting rid of Hezbollah and of Iran. This is something realistic and it might actually happen.

Sarah: Yesterday, I was a little disappointed to read that both Egypt and Jordan expressed support for Lebanon against “Israeli aggression on all fronts”. What does that tell us about the first two Sunni Arab nations to make peace with Israel?

Amir: On the one hand, we have peace and common interests with Egypt and Jordan. Let’s say, they are both on the western or American side. On the other hand, society in both countries hates Israel. Both regimes are afraid of the threat posed by internal pressure. For this reason, they tend to say what they think that their people would like to hear. There is a difference between what they say in the media and what they discuss with Israel. Having said that, Egypt is engaging in a very big military buildup and we have to analyze the reasons for it and understand that peace with them is not necessarily forever. We have to take their capabilities and military buildup seriously.

Sarah: That supports the argument for Israel needing to retain control over the Philadelphi Corridor. Israel also needs to control the Gaza perimeter. Please address the need for Israel to maintain control in these areas in the South. Please also address why Israel must maintain control of the area between the Litani River and the Blue Line in Lebanon, at least for the time being.

Amir: We need two things to ensure a terror army will never operate in the Gaza Strip again. The first is control over the Philadelphi Corridor. The second is full freedom of operation for the IDF everywhere in Gaza. We have to remember that we retreated from the cities after Oslo. We handed them to the Palestinian Authority. In 1994, we were in the Philadelphi Corridor and we had a presence in towns inside Gaza. We left the area and no longer operated in the cities and towns there. It took the Palestinian Authority seven years to take Gaza from the Stone Age to having the capacity to shoot rockets. By 2001, the Palestinians in Gaza began shooting rockets at Israel. Seven years prior, they were literally living in the Stone Age.

This happened because we stopped operating in the cities. We were in the Philadelphi Corridor and we were in towns inside Gaza. It is not enough for us to control the Philadelphi Corridor. We need full freedom of operation like we have in Judea and Samaria. These operational capabilities are essential to keep Gaza clean of terror to the extent possible.

Sarah: We have a number of questions from the audience. First of all, how involved is the United States? I know that they have sent three aircraft carriers and one nuclear submarine to the region. Do these serve as a warning to Israel not to attack Iran, or is the US presence there designed to scare Iran off?

Amir: There is a coalition in the Middle East helping Israel to defend against Iranian attacks. They are also trying to stabilize the region and avoid a regional war. However, I have said all along that the way to stabilize this situation is to attack Iran. We need to destroy their nuclear capabilities and to deter them. Without deterrence, there will be no stability. To create stability, we need a concentrated attack lasting two or three days. We need to destroy their capabilities. Then the entire Shia axis will collapse and we can stabilize the region.

In three days, a coalition can impact Iran in the same way we impacted Hezbollah in two weeks. We are not asking for boots on the ground. We are not asking the US for a long-term engagement like the ones they had in Iraq or Afghanistan. Israel has shown how to do this quickly and effectively. Unfortunately, it is a real challenge to get the US to understand that this is the right path and this is what needs to be done to really create stability.

Sarah: On Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris appeared on 60 Minutes. She conceded that Iran is our number one enemy. In the meantime, it appears Israel is being left on its own to deal with Iran’s nuclear program. Do you believe there is a way to defeat Iran? Can we support the Iranian people so they can rise against the regime? Many republican senators have revealed that the US State Department is holding up the arms Israel needs to be able to complete the job. Do you think Israel could do this job without the support from the United States?

Amir: Israel has many capabilities and can deal with Iran in many different ways. We will see those capabilities in action soon enough. However, Iran is a large country which is far from Israel. As such, I think a US led coalition is the best way to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat. In this sense, the outcome of the US election is going to be very interesting. The next administration will define where this is going and whether Israel will need to act alone or not. In one case, we will likely have to deal with Iran by ourselves. We will do it. In the second case, we will likely be dealing with an administration which understands the role of the US as a leader on the global and regional stage. In this case, the US will likely lead a coalition against Iran.

Sarah: This has been the longest war in Israel’s history. What is the morale of the Israeli people? What is the morale like within the IDF?

Amir: Well, Israel’s War of Independence lasted a year and a half. As such, the October 7^th war is not yet our longest war, although I do believe it will be. The morale in Israel has been very high since the pagers and the killing of Nasrallah and others. I think people want a decisive victory and they do not want the military to stop. They are not looking for ceasefires. They really want to win. I think there is a lot of optimism in Israel right now.

Sarah: I know that hundreds of young boys in the IDF have fallen. How would you rate the morale in the IDF?

Amir: I talked to the units. The morale is high. When the soldiers feel that they are doing a meaningful job, it boosts morale. Morale increases when the soldiers feel their missions are meaningful and they are moving towards victory. People have been working hard and they are tired. The reservists have been called up many times, but results encourage them. They believe they are making a difference and are winning. In this sense, I think morale is high.

Sarah: Yeah, it is very interesting. Here in the United States, we have seen unprecedented waves of antisemitism, especially among college students. On October 7^th many of them held rallies supporting the obliteration of the Jewish state. These rallies were not about showing empathy for the Palestinians. We are fully aware that the chant, From the River to the Sea, Palestine should be Free, means only one thing. However, we have observed something interesting happening in the American Jewish student population. Many young Jewish kids are now connecting with their Judaism and their Zionism. Some of them had not previously identified with Judaism. They are running Hillel houses and attending Chabad. Have you noticed anything like that? I know that you speak in the United States a lot.

Amir: Yeah. We are seeing what Israel can do. I think this makes Jews very proud. I think the impact on the Jewish community is going to be very similar to what happened in the Six Day War. Obviously, this is a long war and not a war of six days but the result will be very clear and it will empower a lot of Jewish people. I think that Israel will be the safest place for Jews. It always was, but it will be much clearer. Following the war, I believe there will be a lot of Aliyah to Israel. I think there are going to be peace agreements made after the war and an economic boom in Israel. A lot of good things are going to happen after the war.

Sarah: Right. How have the countries who signed the Abraham Accords responded to this war? What has been the reaction of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan?

Amir: The entire Sunni world is amazed and happy about Israel dismantling the Shia axis. The Shia axis endangers them a great deal. Israel’s victories against this axis will make them interested in increasing their contacts and relations with Israel. I think this will eventually boost the peace agreements between them and Israel.

It is sad to say but the US could have been a part of this success and they chose not to. If the US were to join Israel, they would win a huge victory. I cannot comprehend why they continually push for ceasefires. I think the vast majority of Americans are patriots who like winners. They want to be part of the victory. They want to see the US as a strong country. I met a high-level US official. Our discussion was around ceasefires and calming things down. I looked at the entrance of the room. There I saw a symbol of the US eagle holding arrows. I asked him what has happened to the US, they used to be eagles, now they are doves. America cannot be a dove. America needs to be an eagle. You cannot build world leadership through policies of appeasement only.

Sarah: There has never been a time in history that appeasement has worked. Victory works. History loves winners. Nothing succeeds like success.

Amir: Definitely. Especially if a country like Israel hands you the win on a silver platter. All you need to do is join them and enjoy the win. Politically speaking, I actually think it would benefit the administration and boost the democratic candidate in the upcoming election. So, I do not think it makes sense at any level for the administration not to support Israel in attacking Iran. If I was the US president, I would launch an attack on Iran now. I would destroy all their nuclear sites, and take the credit for it. Israel is showing that it can be done, so why not do it? We have already eradicated almost all of Hezbollah and Hamas. This is the moment. However, it appears that it is not happening

Sarah: Right. If America does nothing to support Israel against Iran, it will be a blight on American history. Nature abhors a vacuum and we see Iran continue to increase ties with Russia and China. Russia, China and Iran are America’s greatest enemies and I do not know what America is waiting for. This is really the time. So let me see if we have other questions from the audience. What do you think about the option of attacking the Iranian oil fields?

Amir: I do not think this is something Israel will do now. It is not in the interest of the US administration to have oil prices increasing before the election. I think this is definitely something that will be under consideration in the future. There is a difference between what we would do before, versus after, the election. Attacking Iran’s oil fields is always an option.

Sarah: Do you know the fate of Yahya Sinwar?

Amir: No. We suspect that he might not be alive, but we do not have proof. As such, Israel has been careful about saying he is dead. We are not sure.

Sarah: Right. How have the Palestinians living in Judea and Samaria responded during this war?

Amir: They are continually incited by different terror groups trying to launch attacks. These groups include the Palestinian Authority. The IDF is very proactive there. They subvert terror attacks and arrest those involved. Overall, the central command is doing a very good job in maintaining control in this area.

Sarah: Do you believe that the Israeli people have finally rejected the notion of land for peace, the Oslo accords and the Gaza withdrawal? Have they learned anything from the events of the past year?

Amir: I think many politicians and left-wing generals have learned very little. That said, most of Israeli society views things very differently now. They still want to see a solution and a peaceful future but they are much more connected to reality. They understand more about who our enemies are, what they want to do and what their plans are. I think few people will be willing to accept ideas that will endanger them in the future.

Sarah: If the elections were held today, what would the Knesset look like?

Amir: It is hard to say. I think there will be new candidates standing in the next election. Israeli society is fed up with all of our existing politicians, including those on the left, the right and the center. Society is looking for new leaders to step forward and there will be new forces impacting the election. It is hard to predict the outcome. Overall, I think Israeli society is moving to the right. I see this in the way they discuss security and the way they look at solutions. That said, Israeli society also wants to maintain liberalism and democracy. I am not referring to society becoming woke. There is a difference between real liberalism and wokeness. Of course, our society has become more connected to Zionism and to Judaism.

Sarah: It is an amazing awakening.

Amir: Yeah. There is definitely an awakening.

Sarah: It has been a long time coming. I am going to wrap up saying we are grateful to Brigadier General Amir Aviv for his brilliant insights and analyses.

I want to remind everyone that we meet with members of Congress on Capitol Hill several times a week. Our objective is to help them understand the reality faced by the Jewish state. We provide the education needed for them to understand and acknowledge that Israel is fighting the war for all of western civilization. It is in the United States’ own interest to support Israel. The Israelis are not asking Americans to take a bullet for them. They are asking for the ability, capabilities, military and the arsenal to be able to defend themselves.

If you can, please attend our annual Rays of Light in the Darkness dinner on November 19^th in Washington DC. It is going to be incredible. Our guests include Mosab Hassan Yousef, Elise Stefanik, Jared Moskowitz, and Shabbos Kestenbaum. Tickets are selling quickly and we urge you to reserve yours as soon as possible. Please support EMET at https://emetonline.org/ any way you can. I am not aware of any other organization which works with Capitol Hill in the way we do.

Thank you, Amir, from the bottom of our hearts.

Amir: Pleasure. My pleasure.

Sarah: Please also support Amir’s organization IDSF at https://idsf.org.il/en/. Their work is critical to ensure Israel’s security. Thank you so much.

Amir: Thank you very much.

[END]