View from the Homefront: A Briefing with Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi Transcript

Disclaimer: This transcript is an edited version version of a transcript created using AI technology and may not reflect 100% accuracy.

Joseph Epstein: Hi, I would like to welcome everyone to today’s Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET) webinar. My name is Joseph Epstein, EMET’s Director of Legislative Affairs. Today’s webinar features Brigadier General Amir Avivi, an Israeli defense expert and a return guest to EMET.

Israel has now been at war for 10 months. This is the longest war Israel has ever fought. Hezbollah continues to threaten Israel on its northern border and Iran is threatening a direct reprisal for the alleged liquidation of Hamas chief, Ismail Haniyeh. The chances of escalation are higher than ever. Does Israel have the capacity to defend itself against these threats? Would its allies assist in countering an extended, large-scale Iranian attack, as they did last April? What is the status of the current war with Hamas?

Here to answer these questions and more is Brigadier General Amir Avivi. Brigadier General Avivi is the founder and chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), a group of over 22,000 reserve officers and operatives from all branches of the Israeli security forces.

Brigadier General Aviv held a series of senior roles in the IDF, including Deputy Controller of the Security Forces, Director of the Office of the Chief of Staff, Deputy Commander of the Gaza Division, Commander of the Szeged Division, Commander of Battalion 605, and Commander of the School of Combat Engineering.

Before we start, I would like to mention that our work is only possible with your support. If you find what we do informative and helpful, consider sponsoring a future webinar or contributing to EMET. It is your help and support that allows us to continue with our important work on Capitol Hill. Our work helps promote the truth about the Middle East. Our objective is to ensure a prosperous and peaceful Israel there, to fight the influence of the Iranian regime, to increase U.S national security and to improve the welfare of Jewish Americans.

Today’s webinar will be recorded for future viewing. I encourage those of you who find the webinar informative to share the link once it has been sent out. If you have any questions for our speaker, please feel free to write them in the Q&A section at the bottom of your screen. Without further ado, I’d like to introduce Amir Aviv. Thank you.

Amir Avivi: Thank you very much. It is a pleasure being here. I will give an overview of what is going on, starting with the situation in Gaza. I visited the Southern Command last week. I had a chance to have a very long discussion with the commander of the Southern Command and to really observe what is going on there.

After 10 months, we are moving steadily towards victory in Gaza. We are close to achieving the goal of eradicating Hamas as a military and governmental entity. Currently, almost the entire population of Gaza is concentrated in the designated humanitarian zone along the shore in Al-Mawasi. There are more than a million people in Al-Mawasi. There are some people in the South close to the humanitarian area but outside of that, Gaza is pretty empty of people. This, of course, makes it easy for the IDF to operate in Rafah and Khan Yunis, the central camps in the north of Gaza.

The IDF has managed to destroy the production capability of Hamas and to close the Egyptian border. Hamas cannot rebuild itself. Israel’s production capability is growing exponentially while Hamas continues to lose both production capability and people.

The IDF is destroying Hamas at the pace of 50 terrorists a day. Sustained Israeli attacks are destroying the leadership of Hamas. We witnessed the targeting of Mohammed Deif, their chief of staff. We saw the alleged target of Haniyeh. Many of Hamas’ brigades, commanders, battalions and companies have been killed. The IDF, together with the Shin Bet, is systematically destroying the entire leadership of Hamas.

I think we will see the fruits of this long process in the next couple of months. If we continue along this path, we will see a huge victory in Gaza. I am talking about the hostages. It is critical to bring back all of the hostages and it is a goal of the war. The way to succeed in this is via military pressure. Israel cannot give up Philadelphi or give up control of the Egyptian border. If we do, the hostages may be taken to Iran. There is also the risk that massive capabilities from Egypt will flow into Gaza. All of our achievements will be for nothing. So, giving up the Philadelphi Corridor is not an option.

We must also insist that any deal with Hamas brings back the maximum number of hostages. This is because we know that there will probably be no other deal for a long time. So, when Hamas says they are willing to return 18 hostages and not 33 or 35, Israel cannot accept this. Until Hamas agrees to return the maximum number of hostages possible, Israel must continue exerting more and more military pressure on them.

At IDSF, we expect the government and the IDF will take civil control of Gaza at some point. This is a crucial step and it is needed to prevent humanitarian aid from going to Hamas. It is critical for the Palestinians to understand that Israel will be controlling Gaza going forward. If they believe Hamas will no longer be in control of Gaza, they will cooperate with us, give up their leaders and release the hostages. This step has not yet been taken yet, but I hope we will be taken in the near future.

For the first time since October 7^th, Israel can consider changing its strategy. For 10 months, we have been on the offensive in Gaza and on the defensive on all other fronts. Now, we can change our strategy and we can start focusing on the North and the East. So, our reaction to a retaliation from Iran or Hezbollah, may be different from what we saw in April. In April, we were not in Rafah yet. We still had many crucial missions to achieve in Gaza. Our focus was on defending ourselves against the attack from Iran and our response to their full-scale attack was very small and very limited. We were focused on Gaza and we were not ready to change our strategy at that time.

We are in a different stage now. Given where we are now, we are able to change our strategy. We can shift the center of gravity to an attack in Lebanon, and possibly Iran. We are faced with three possible options or scenarios.

In the first scenario, we follow the same game plan as we did in April. In this scenario we wait for our enemies to retaliate. We defend ourselves as best we can together with the coalition that we built with the U.S. and other allies. Afterwards we attack Iran and probably Hezbollah. We will probably attack them more strongly than we did last time, but our attack will only happen after theirs. This is not a good option, but it is a possibility.

The second option is for us to be proactive and to attack our enemies before they attack us. In this scenario, we attack the capabilities they are preparing to use to attack us. We do not launch a full-scale war but we act pro-actively to prevent them from launching their missiles and drones. We attack them as we see them getting prepared to attack us.

The third option is for Israel to shift its strategy completely. In this scenario, Israel recognizes that this moment presents a unique opportunity and we launch a full-scale attack on Hezbollah. We hit their capabilities all over Lebanon and then commence a ground incursion into South Lebanon. The objective here is to conquer South Lebanon, destroy Hezbollah’s infra-structure there, and push them north of the Litani River. This is the only realistic way to create the conditions necessary to bring 80,000 displaced Israelis back home safely. Without a full-scale attack, I do not see any situation where Hezbollah simply withdraws from South Lebanon.

We will have to take the decision to deal with Hezbollah in Lebanon at some point. The big question is whether that time is now. Is now the appropriate time to take advantage of the situation and attack Hezbollah? With respect to the second and third options I discussed I think Israel needs to consider whether it needs to concentrate on Gaza for a couple more months. In that case, we would simply limit our enemies’ capacity to attack us for now. If we do not need to focus as much on Gaza, we could decide to launch a full-scale attack in Lebanon to dramatically degrade their capabilities and to destroy them in South Lebanon. This option would enable our citizens to return home.

The situation in the North is really, really bad. Our people are displaced and our towns are being destroyed. The economy in the North is not functioning. There is a big question as to how long we are going to sustain this problematic reality. We need to do something. This is the dilemma that the cabinet and the army are dealing with.

I am on my way to talk to a group of displaced kibbutzniks who are living in a hotel. We need to be with them and give them the time to ask questions. We need to share with them what is really going on. It is very important to support our displaced citizens who have not been home in 10 months. It is unbelievable. This did not even happen during the War of Independence.

If Iran attacks us again, we have the capacity to inflict huge damage on them. There are many different targets we can attack. The big question is where America is in all of this. We understand that the U.S. sent many ships to the area. We understand that there is a coalition that will help defend Israel. What we are not seeing is U.S. support for an attack on Iran. We need U.S. leadership. We need the U.S. to be more proactive and to telegraph a credible military threat to Iran.

We have to remember that Iran is moving towards obtaining nuclear weapons. This is not an option. Iran cannot become nuclear. A nuclear Iran will endanger the whole globe. Therefore, we must convince the administration that we need to deal militarily with Iran. We must convince them that we should confront Iran with a coalition and we should not have to deal with them alone.

The Iranians and Hezbollah understand that they have a window of opportunity. They are very worried that Trump will be elected in November. They do not know what will happen in January if Trump is elected in November. They know there could be huge changes in U.S. policy and that the whole global and regional situation might change. They do not want to wait for this.

Iran and Hezbollah want to seize the moment and they want to attack Israel. We spoke to the prime minister not long ago and we wrote him a very detailed paper. On that paper, I wrote in red, “Another 7th of October is not an option.” We cannot permit a reality where they attack us first. We need to be proactive. Our ability to be effective depends on our taking the initiative. This is crucial. This is why we are trying to push the cabinet and the army to be proactive and attack first. So, these coming days are going to be very, very definitive.

Israelis are worried. They do not know what will happen. However, Israeli society is very resilient. The coffee shops are full and people are still shopping and traveling in Israel. According to the polls, the vast majority of Israelis are prepared to fight as long as needed. We want victory. We are not willing to accept anything less than a decisive victory on all fronts. We have a very resolute society indeed and I am really happy to see how strong it is.

Our society is resilient but it needs leadership. It needs its leaders to explain what is going on, and where all this is going. A portion of Israeli society believes we have fought enough. They want to stop fighting and enter into a ceasefire with Hamas. They are disregarding the repercussions of having Hamas stay in power and being able to rebuild itself.  We do not believe that a ceasefire enabling Hamas to rebuild itself is a viable option.

We need to seize the moment. We are fighting a long war and the hardest part is still ahead of us but we need to fight and we need to win. I am very optimistic. I truly believe that the bigger the fight, the more decisive our victory will be and the greater the golden age of Israel and the Jewish people will be the day after. If we win decisively, there will be peace agreements. The economy will bloom. There will be Aliyah to Israel, and there will also be a baby boom. There are many good things waiting for the Jewish people in Israel the day after this war. However, to achieve this moment, Israel needs to stay united and strong, and we need to win decisively.

We have the ability, the will and the ammunition. We have everything we need to win. All we need to do is decide to fight. We control our own fate and this is very important. We just need to do make the right decisions. I will stop here and I am happy to take questions.

Joseph: Thank you so much. You mentioned the possibility of hostages being moved to Iran if Israel gives up the Philadelphi Corridor. Hamas held the hostages for a long time before the Philadelphi Corridor came under Israel’s control. Do you think it is possible that some hostages have been moved outside of Gaza, possibly even to Iran?

Amir: Some hostages may have been moved to Iran but we believe that most of them are still in Gaza. I think the motivation to take them out of Gaza is growing as we move closer and closer to victory there. This is one of the reasons why we cannot pull out of Philadelphi. We need to stay strong in Philadelphi for military reasons but also to prevent any hostages from being removed from Gaza

Joseph: Thank you. Israel has been trying to buy quiet for a long time. It has accepted status quos and it received the October 7^th war in Gaza in return. Israel accepted around 20 years of rocket fire from Gaza, an almost nuclear-emboldened Iran and a Hezbollah armed to the teeth and stronger than ever before. Do you think the security establishment will continue with this paradigm of accepting the status quo or have they learned a lesson? Will we see a shift in long-term strategy?

Amir: We need to replace most of the leadership in the army and also in the Shin Bet. We have been led by commanders who were not correct in their thinking. I think they embraced the strategy of containment. This type of strategy worked well for the U.S. against the USSR. In 1946, the U.S. adopted the strategy of containing the USSR. This meant they did not allow the USSR to expand and they entered into an arms and space race with the Russians. This strategy caused the USSR to fall without a single bullet being fired. Following the fall of the USSR in the late 1980s, there were many who believed we had reached the pinnacle and the end of history. In his book, Koyama wrote, “History ended. The Messiah is here. Peace will erupt everywhere. Everybody will be democratic, and the new era will start.” Of course, people like Professor Huntington were shocked by the views espoused by Koyama. Huntington said that Koyama had not listened to his lessons. Huntington wrote the book called, The Clash of Civilizations which Netanyahu in his speech to Congress.  Huntington basically disagreed with the notion that there would be world peace and he predicted a clash of civilizations. I can say that Israeli leaders and security forces adopted the idea of containment, and for a while it actually worked. They adopted this approach without writing much about it and without really discussing it in depth,

Over the past 20 years, we avoided big wars and our economy bloomed. Tourism flourished, high tech exploded, we traveled and we had great lives. We did engage in occasional military operations, but these were not full-scale wars. While this was happening, we witnessed the Arab spring and we watched our enemies falling and their economies falling. We saw countries like Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon fall apart. There was a real belief in Israel that we would win by avoiding war and allowing our enemies to collapse one by one.

Two years ago, we at IDSF warned that we were witnessing huge strategic changes in the world. We warned that Israel’s policy of avoidance and containment was not likely to be successful much longer. We cautioned that the change was going to bring war for sure. That change was the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and from the Middle East overall. It was the buildup of a Chinese-Russian-Iranian front in the Middle East. It was the Iranians who had built up their power sufficiently to make them believe they were ready for war and who were backed up by China and Russia. The change was also everything that was going on inside Israel. We observed big changes but Israeli leaders were like investors in the stock market. Investors see the stock market going up more and more and more and are convinced it will continue to increase. Then, one day, there is a complete collapse. That describes what happened to Israel.

Many of our leaders believed that a continued strategy of containment would work for us. Obviously, they were wrong. We cannot live with huge terror armies on our borders. They are like tsunamis and tsunamis cannot be contained with a spoon. Rather, we need to make sure we do not have tsunamis on our borders. We cannot have terror armies on our borders and we need to create a reality where they no longer exist. We should not care about their intentions. We need to make sure they do not have the capabilities to harm us. We do not control intentions.

Joseph: Thank you. I want to follow up on a couple of the points you made. You mentioned that many in the security establishment need to be replaced in order to bring about the change needed in Israel’s long-term strategy. Do you think such a thing is possible? Do you think there is political will for that to happen? Do you think it is something the population wants?

Also, you spoke about how the U.S. contained the Soviet Union without a single bullet having to be fired. Do you think we could succeed in doing the same thing with Iran? Is there a possibility that this conflict with Iran does not end in war or that the U.S. de-escalates a hot war with Iran and achieves a peaceful resolution?

Amir: In answer to your first question, I think that a change in the security establishment’s leadership will eventually happen one way or another. The chief of staff already took responsibility and said he would resign once he finishes the job. The head of intelligence is now leaving as well. However, I think that in order to effect serious change, we have to appoint the right chief of staff. The appointment of the appropriate person is necessary to change the mindset of army leadership in a significant way.

The guys on the ground are great soldiers. The battalions, brigades and division commanders are all serious fighters. However, the group at the level of general, is a group that promoted itself. They are all like-minded in their world-view and they are all wrong. This needs to change. We need a more diverse general staff. We need people with differing views. We do not need a group of leaders who all think the same and who all think incorrectly. We need a change.

With respect to your second question, it is difficult to envision a scenario where we do not have to go to war with Iran. However, it will not necessarily happen immediately. While it might happen now, there is a chance a war with Iran will be delayed until after the U.S. elections and until after the new president is assumes office. It is better to be part of a coalition dealing with a full-scale war with Iran, as opposed to doing it alone. As such, it is worthwhile waiting to see what happens in November.

Joseph: Yes, it seems like both sides do not really want war right now, but for different reasons. It seems like Israel and the United States do not want war in general. Iran, on the other hand, wants a war but with better conditions. Would you agree with that assessment? If that is the case, what can Israel do to make it so that Iran does not achieve those improved conditions for war?

Amir: I do not know if Iran wants war right now. I think they are contemplating it now so they can take advantage of all the support they currently have from Russia and China. Also, they know the U.S. is focusing on elections and not enough on what is going on here. They are aware that if they do not do something dramatic now, they might not have another chance. They are dealing with a dilemma. They know that if they attack us again, and we intercept their missiles again, their deterrence capabilities may be harmed. In April, the coalition successfully intercepted all of their weapons. If that happens again, this might hurt the way the Iranians look at their country and this might give Israel an opportunity to retaliate in a much, much stronger way.

One attack from Israel can destroy all their oil production and their economy. We can do a lot. We conducted one attack on Yemen. The Houthis are still shocked by our attack and they have not retaliated. They know that if we attack again, the oil economy will be destroyed completely.

So, the Iranians have a number of different issues to consider and we will see what they decide to do. I am not sure that we have succeeded in deterring them from attacking us at this time. This is because they see that America is not strong and do not believe the U.S. will be willing to retaliate if they attack. The U.S. policy of appeasement is bringing more chaos and danger to the region and to Israel.

Joseph: Yes, I definitely agree with you there. We have some questions from the audience about how the elections in the U.S. might affect the conflict in the Middle East. Many countries are watching what is happening in the U.S. before determining their policy. This is something I have noticed happening across the world, from the Caucuses to South America to Asia. What do you think Israeli policy looks like under a Trump administration? How do you think that would differ from Israeli policy under a Harris administration?

Amir: Under Trump, I think there is a higher chance of building a coalition posing a military threat to Iran. I think the Trump administration understands our security concerns much better than the current administration does. They understand the importance of Judea and Samaria and the importance of sovereignty. This will enable Israel to bring forward realistic solutions that take our actual security needs into account. We could work with the administration to move away from the two-state solution currently being pushed by the Biden administration. The two-state solution basically implies the complete destruction of the state of Israel.

If Trump is elected, Israel needs to seize the moment. We need to push for decisions that will secure Israel for generations. One such decision is the application of Israeli sovereignty in the Jewish towns in Area C, in Judea and Samaria, in the Jordan Valley. Under a Trump administration, we need to build and implement new solutions and new ideas different from the failed two-state solution that is being pushed by the current administration.

Joseph: Thank you. So, another question from the audience. You mentioned that Israel needs a total victory in the war in Gaza. In your opinion, what does total victory look like?

Amir: Well, we have very clear goals of war and we need to achieve them. The goals of war are the eradication of Hamas as a governmental military entity; the return of all the hostages and the creation of a reality that will never again support a terror army in Gaza. These are the written goals of the war. This is a total victory. The day after Hamas, Israel will have to stay in Philadelphi. The day after Hamas, we will need full freedom of operation everywhere.

As the prime minister said in Washington, we need overriding security control in Gaza. The IDF needs to be in control militarily and must be able to prevent any buildup of terror capabilities. We need to de-radicalize Gazan society and we cannot do that without civic control of the area, at least for a while. Only Israel can change their education system. The Emirates or Saudi Arabia can assist but cannot make the far-reaching changes needed without being on the ground there. Only Israel can do it.

After World War II and as part of the Marshall Plan, the U.S. occupied Germany for four years and Japan for six. In a similar way, we need to remain in Gaza for a time in order to effect fundamental change in ideology there. The process of changing Gazan ideology will be a long and difficult one but if we succeed, we will all reap enormous rewards.

Joseph: Thank you. We have many more audience questions about Hezbollah. What are your thoughts on a preemptive attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon? You mentioned the need to be proactive. Is that what Israel should do in Lebanon?

Amir: Israel has analyzed Hezbollah’s infrastructure for 20 years. If we launch a pro-active attack on Hezbollah, we can use our knowledge to inflict very serious damage on them. If we wait and react to an attack from Hezbollah, we face a very different scenario. This is because we do not know how our infra-structure will be damaged by Hezbollah. There is a chance Hezbollah will damage air force bases, headquarters and other strategic targets. So, it is crucial to be proactive and to launch a preemptive, full-scale attack on Hezbollah. This is the only way to really change the current reality from a strategic perspective.

Joseph: Thank you. In April, Iran launched that massive drone and missile attack against Israel. The U.S. and many of its regional allies helped to defend Israel. Do you think the U.S. and other regional allies will come to Israel’s aid again? If so, do you think they would help Israel at all if Israel wants to take the offensive? Let’s assume the attack killed civilians or crossed some sort of Israeli red line.

Amir: When you start shooting, you do not know how it will end. This is true irrespective of who initiates the strike. The Iranians are taking a big risk if they attack Israel directly. The U.S. has ships and capabilities in the Middle East and it has active air defenses there as well. This overall picture is dramatic and it is a lot. However, the big question is whether the U.S. will be willing to attack and not just defend. I do not know the answer to that, but I can tell you that if Iran fires at us again, Israel will retaliate strongly. In that scenario, I have no idea what the U.S. will do.

Joseph: Thank you. On that note, we have quite a few questions about Israel’s capacity to act alone if needed. You mentioned that we cannot accept Iran having nuclear weapons, but Iran is closer than ever to becoming a nuclear power. If Israel was to find out that Iran had plans to complete the development of a nuclear weapon, do you think it would be able to take out Iran’s nuclear program by itself?

Amir: I do not know if we can take the whole program, but we can definitely set them back quite a lot. However, as I mentioned, we should not agree to the idea that a nuclear Iran is Israel’s problem alone. Iran is a large country which is far from Israel. If the U.S. is not willing to show leadership in this case, it is a huge problem. It sends a very bad message, not just to Israel but to the whole Middle East. Everybody is looking at what the U.S. is doing and asking if they are really a true and reliable ally.

It comes as no surprise that both Saudi Arabia and Egypt are contemplating siding with China. Russia and China are strongly coordinated, they seem resolute and they are not afraid to fight. This makes many countries nervous and they are wondering where the U.S. is. They need the U.S. to be strong, proactive and to demonstrate leadership.

Joseph: Thank you. We have many more questions from our audience and I hope I am going to be able to get to them all. One of them is from our president, Sarah Stern. Sarah is asking if there’s a possibility that Yahya Sinwar was able to flee the Gaza Strip to Egypt or even somewhere else, like Iran.

Amir: As far as we know, he is Gaza. He has not left Gaza. There is a huge effort to locate him and it is just a matter of time before we do. There will come a time when we will have destroyed Hamas’ entire leadership. There will not be a single leader of the October 7^th attack left alive, all of them will be killed.

Joseph: Thank you. We have another question from Lori Reagan, an EMET board member. Lori is saying she heard that Israel needs around a year to rearm, regroup, and rest. How do you think that impacts Israel’s ability to handle a war with Hezbollah?

Amir: Israel is fully armed and ready for war with Hezbollah. We do not need a year; we are ready. We will never have all the ammunition we want. I do not know of any war where combatants were satisfied with the amount of munitions they had. However, the Northern Command is at full readiness for a full-scale war with Hezbollah, and we do not need to wait. We are ready.

Joseph: Thank you. On that note, the past year has shown that Israel’s reliance on U.S. munitions has placed it in a position of having to give up on its own national interests at times. This is because our administration can threaten to withhold crucial munitions from Israel if they refuse to comply with U.S. policy demands. Do you think that Israel will now try to build back its independence and self-reliance in the longer-term?

Amir: Israel is doing so as we speak and I hope this will continue. Israel needs to really be able to defend itself by itself. We cannot rely on any country when it comes to our existence; not even the U.S.

Joseph: Okay. Well, thank you so much Amir, we always appreciate your takes on these pressing issues. We always love having you with us. I would like to thank our audience as well.

Amir: It is my pleasure.

Joseph: Thank you so much. I would like to thank our audience for tuning in, and we hope to see you next week. Thank you.

Amir: Thank you very much. It was a pleasure.

[END]

The video can be found here.