What is the Situation Today on Israel’s North Transcript

Disclaimer: This transcript is an edited version version of a transcript created using AI technology and may not reflect 100% accuracy.

The video can be found here. 

Sarah: Good afternoon. Today is day 334 of the multi-front war waged by Iran against the State of Israel. This has been a really difficult time for lovers of freedom, of the United States and of the State of Israel. Those of us who understand this distinction between good and evil are feeling shattered to our cores at the barbaric murder of Carmel Gat, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Alexander Lobanov, Almog Sarusi, Eden Yerushalmi and Ori Danino.

Before we begin this webinar, I have to question why the world is not rising up against Hamas. Why do the “useful idiots” continue rallying in support of Hamas on our college campuses? Why is our educational system so flawed that faculty and students alike fail to recognize the distinction between goodness and evil. Hamas is just one of Iran’s many tentacles. In January 2020, IRGC strategist Qasem Soleimani said Iran would create a ring of fire around Israel. This was before he was eliminated during the Trump administration.

On October 8^th, Hezbollah joined the war Hamas had launched one day prior. Hezbollah is another of Iran’s poisonous tentacles. Similar to Hamas, its objective is to eliminate the State of Israel. Hezbollah has conducted a constant and steady war of attrition on Israel’s North. It has scorched thousands of acres of Israeli farmland and forests. Many Israeli homes have burned to the ground and 60,000 to 80,000 residents of Israel’s North do not feel secure enough to return to their homes. Most feel like internally displaced people or temporary residents in their own homeland. Since the elimination of Fu’ad Shakar on July 30th, there has been a tremendous increase in the psychological insecurity of the residents of Israel’s North. The war on the North has not ended. Hezbollah has continued sending a steady barrage of rockets, drones, and missiles into the North Galilee region.

We are here today to speak with one of the true heroes in the fight to defend the Jewish homeland. Lieutenant Colonel Sarit Zehavi is the founder and president of Alma. Alma is a nonprofit and an independent research and educational center specializing in Israel security challenges along its Northern border. Sarit has briefed hundreds of groups and forums. These include US senators, congressmen and women, politicians, senior journalists and VIP groups visiting Israel. Sarit authors numerous position papers and updates. These focus primarily on Lebanon, Syria, and Israel’s national security challenges. Sarit served in the IDF for 15 years where she specialized in military intelligence. She holds an MA in Middle East studies from Ben Gurion University. We recently had the honor and privilege of accompanying Sarit on Capitol Hill, and I have to say, she is absolutely brilliant. Sarit was selected by the Jerusalem Post as one of the top 50 most influential global Jewish personalities of 2021. She lives with her husband Yaron and their children in the Western Galilee.

Before turning to Sarit, we would like to make sure our audience is aware of EMET’s work and contributions. In addition to hosting weekly webinars, we write thoughtful analyses which are published across multiple media platforms every week. Several times each week, we inform our policymakers about the facts behind latest Middle East developments. In this way, we help ensure policy decisions are made based on accurate, timely and factual information. On November 19^th of this year, we are hosting our annual dinner in Washington. Confirmed honorees so far are Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, Congressman Jared Moskowitz, and Shabbos Kestenbaum. Shabbos Kestenbaum is the student suing Harvard for its pervasive atmosphere of antisemitism. Please be sure to support EMET at https://emetonline.org/ and try your best to attend our annual gala. Please also support the Alma Center at https://israel-alma.org/.

Sarah: Without further ado, I bring you Lieutenant Colonel Sarit Zehavi of the Alma Center. Sarit is someone I have grown to admire and respect tremendously. Sarit, please update us about what happened on August 25^th and how that has changed the landscape for the people living in Israel’s North.

Sarit: Thank you very much. Since you mentioned that we visited Congress together, I want to open with a short personal story. When meeting with members of Congress, it is customary to give them a small gift. The present I chose to bring was a picture of a beautiful sunset in the Galilee. This is a picture I took from my old balcony. When you first glance at the picture, you are unlikely to see anything special. However, when you take a closer look, you may notice a line of smoke there. This is actually an Iron Dome missile that chased a drone and failed to intercept it.

Unfortunately, the beautiful sunset in the photo is decorated with many lines of smoke from missiles. This has become an almost daily site from my balcony. You can imagine how loud they sound as well. The children in Israel went back to school on September 1^st. On the one hand, I was very happy that my little girl is going back to school. On the other hand, I do not feel it is safe enough for her to go back to school.

Just before I came to the States, 12 Israeli Druze children were killed in a community that was not evacuated. The community was not evacuated because it is more than five kilometers from the Lebanese border. It is a little further than five kilometers from the Lebanese border and much closer to the Syrian border. Hezbollah launched missiles towards the mountain above. One of the missiles landed in the community and killed the 12 children who were playing soccer at the time.

Yesterday, I was at my office, five minutes from home. My 11-year-old daughter was home alone. Since the beginning of the war, we have tried to avoid leaving our children home alone to the extent possible. I saw that there was an explosion next to my home. It is difficult for me as a mother to know that my child had to go to the shelter by herself. She is okay. She is a very brave girl. However, as a mother I was not okay with her having to experience such a thing. This has become a daily reality over here. We have only 15 seconds to run for shelter and it is not enough. My daughter made it on time yesterday because she was next to the shelter. If she was on the second floor or just outside of the house, she would have been able to make it on time. What I just described is a very personal experience. Everything else I plan to discuss today is based on my professional knowledge.

I want to give you some statistics about this war in the North. It started on October 8^th. Since then, we have endured more than 2,900 Hezbollah attacks. An attack does not refer to the number of missiles fired. Each attack comprises multiple missiles. Each attack from Lebanon could include a combination of missiles and drones. As an example, it could include 200 missiles at the same time. Alternatively, it might include four drones or one missile. These are two examples of what may make up a single attack. I am going to share some graphs on the screen. Half of Hezbollah’s attacks have reached civilian targets. Hezbollah may state it is targeting military targets. However, it is using inaccurate weapons like rockets. As a result, Israeli children are being killed.

The graph on the screen depicts the number of attacks on Israel’s northern arena by month and it covers attacks from October 8, 2023 through August 31 2024. As you can see, we are experiencing a fairly stable war of attrition. We have ups and downs, but not too many of them. From day one, half of the targets have been civilian targets and this pattern is continuing. Attacks since August 31^st are not yet reflected in the graph I am showing. Today, Hezbollah fired a barrage of 60 rockets towards Kiryat Shmona, the biggest town in the upper Galilee. Kiryat Shmona is two kilometers from Lebanon. It is a town of 23,000 people, most of whom have been evacuated from their homes. There are sirens in Kiryat Shmona every day and almost 100 homes have been hit there. Hezbollah has attacked Kiryat Shmona directly more than 120 times. Kiryat Shmona provides a good example of what the war in the North looks like. More than 400 missiles and rockets have been launched directly at Kiryat Shmona since the war started.

25 civilians and 22 soldiers have been killed here on the Israeli side of the border. Almost all of the people killed on the Northern front have been killed by fire from Hezbollah. I am sharing another graph with you. The graph breaks down the number of monthly attacks on the Northern front by type of weapons used. You can see that Hezbollah conducts most of the attacks using ‘high trajectory fire’, or rockets. The good news is that these rockets are inaccurate and can be intercepted by the Iron Dome. The bad news is that they are inaccurate and hit indiscriminately. Hezbollah can launch hundreds of rockets at the same time and it is becoming more and more challenging to intercept them.

As you can see in the graph, we have had more than 1200 rocket attacks since the war started. If you count the individual rockets fired in each attack, the total is more than 10 times that amount. The Iron Dome does not intercept rockets falling in open areas. This means that rockets falling in open areas cause fires in the summer. Open roads are also considered open areas and a rocket can hit your car and kill you. This happened. Two parents were killed by a direct rocket strike on one of the main roads over here in the upper Galilee. The potential for recurrence of such catastrophe, means there is a huge disturbance in daily life.

Most of the communities in the Galilee are small communities. Children ride buses to school and those buses drive on the main roads. Parents have demanded a solution to this problem. The Home Front Command has now included the main roads within the Iron Dome polygons. This means we will have to use many more Iron Dome missiles against Hezbollah’s rockets and every Iron Dome missile costs $50,000. We usually launch two missiles against each Hezbollah missile. The missile itself costs around a few hundred dollars. This illustrates the cost of trying to live here and have some sort of life.

It is also important to address the evacuated communities. 60,000 Israelis have been evacuated from communities less than five kilometers from the border. Around 200,000 more Israelis are still living within 10 kilometers of the border. You can see from the graph on the screen that about 15% of Hezbollah’s attacks in the past three months have been on two areas which have not been evacuated.

The reason we saw a decline in attacks between July and August, is because of the August 25^th IDF attack which we will discuss in more detail later. However, the trend is very clear. Hezbollah has made a decision that each time Israel kills a senior commander, their response will include an attack on Israel’s non-evacuated areas in the North. That way, they are placing Israel in a dilemma as regards whether or not to act against Hamas commanders. I personally think that it is worth the price, but I say that very carefully because it is my family who is on the firing line. Assassinating senior commanders causes real damage to Hezbollah because these commanders have been in their positions for many years. That said, these assassinations are not a substitute for an overall strategy to defeat Hezbollah.

Since the war started, Israel has killed 48 senior and field Hezbollah commanders. The level of Hezbollah’s retaliations is increasing based on the number and range of their attacks. As I mentioned, assassinating Hamas commanders cannot be a strategy by itself. Eventually, we need to damage Hezbollah’s capabilities. We need to destroy their munitions, warehouses and rocket launchers.

I want to address what happened on August 25^th. I will start by describing my personal experience on that day. Everyone was awake by 4:30 A.M. because the blasts were deafening. We have been hearing blasts here ever since the war started but this level of noise was something we had not heard before. It was clear to us that something different was going on. Once we saw that there were no alerts, we understood that what we were hearing was the IDF attacking Hezbollah. It was really scary and really loud. My husband and I literally jumped out of bed, got dressed and went to check on the dogs.

About an hour later, Hezbollah’s attack began. Hezbollah launched around 200 rockets and 20 drones that night. There was minimal damage. Everyone was very much on the alert and so we had a high success of interceptions. It was also very early in the morning so people were at home and not driving on the main roads. It was very humid and so no fires were started. We did not incur any casualties on the Israeli side. As far as we know, there were also no casualties on Hezbollah’s side either. Hezbollah typically does not hide its casualties. Hezbollah tried to present August 25^th as hugely successful in avenging the killing of its number two, Fu’ad Shakar, a few weeks ago in Beirut. However, it was not actually a success.

Hezbollah also failed in their attempt to target intelligence bases in central Israel. They lied when they said they succeeded. I think this attack was the IDF sending a message to Hezbollah that we can get to them wherever they are, even underground. I have heard that the earth was shaking as a result of some of the attacks. This leads me to believe we reached some of their underground launchers. The IDF attacked at least 27 areas based on the intelligence we gathered. We attacked with around 100 jets and struck targets both to the North and South of the Litani River.

On August 25^th, we learned the IDF has good intelligence and can launch an effective attack against Hezbollah. At the same time, most of our attacks hit open areas. We did not target town centers where Hezbollah is using the Lebanese as human shields. If the IDF were to attack these areas, more Lebanese would get hurt and it would mean escalation.

So, on the one hand, the IDF’s disruption of Hezbollah’s attack was a huge success. Hezbollah intended to launch many more rockets and drones than it ultimately succeeded in doing. Hezbollah planned to attack areas in the center of Israel, and it failed to do so. The IDF was able to destroy many of the weapons aimed at Israel. At the same time, however, the IDF could not attack inside the towns and villages. As such, they were unable to deal with Hezbollah’s infrastructure and Hezbollah has gradually resumed its attacks after a two-day recess. As of today, we have returned to our new normal with Hezbollah firing tens of rockets toward the Galilee every day.

Sarah: How many launchers was the IDF able to destroy?

Sarit: We do not know because the numbers were never published. Our analysis concluded the IDF targeted at least 27 areas next to towns. We are familiar with some of these areas at the Alma Center. We recognize them as areas that have been used by Hezbollah in some capacity in the past. As I said, the IDF attack was an operational success but it also declared the limitations of Israel’s current campaign.

I wanted to add that we can draw a conclusion by comparing Hezbollah’s August 25^th attack to Iran’s attempted attack in mid-April. The comparison reveals that it is easier for the IDF to plan and initiate a preemptive attack against Hezbollah’s capabilities, then against those of Iran. At the same time, it is easier to intercept missiles and drones coming from Iran than those coming from Hezbollah. Do not be deceived by the success of August 25^th. Drones and rockets are crossing into Israel every day and causing extensive damage. They are not all being intercepted. August 25^th was a success, but that success does not translate to an improvement in daily life here. I will stop here and take questions.

Sarah: Can you explain the distinction between the kind of missiles that Iran is firing at Israel, versus those of Hezbollah? It is my understanding that some of Hezbollah’s rockets do not follow a trajectory that can be easily intercepted.

Sarit: Hezbollah’s missiles do not need to cross almost 2,000 kilometers. Today, Hezbollah’s missiles have traversed a distance of no more than a few tens of kilometers. So, in a sense, the rockets Hezbollah is using are stupid and cheap. As I said previously though, Hezbollah is launching tens of rockets at the same time. Hezbollah is also using anti-tank missiles launched in barrages of two or more. These missiles are launched directly at a specific target and they are not ballistic. This means that we cannot intercept them. There is no way we can defend ourselves from these missiles unless we destroy the launcher before the rocket is fired. Once launched, they hit the target. They are very accurate. As far as we know, these missiles have a range of up to 10 kilometers. Until now, most of them have been launched at ranges of up to five kilometers and this explains why communities within five kilometers of the border have been evacuated. Initially, these communities were evacuated because of the threat of an invasion and then because of the anti-tank missiles that were launched every day. Hezbollah can see these border communities and can target them directly with anti-tank missiles.

Hezbollah also has some anti-tank missiles that do not even need to see the target to be launched. Most of their anti-tank missiles however, can be assigned to their targets. They are accurate and we cannot intercept them and that is a problem for us. I should clarify that anti-tank missiles have no connection with tanks. They are not launched from tanks, nor are they launched against tanks. In most cases, they are launched against homes and IDF positions. They are launched against both military and civilian targets, sometimes even at workers in the fields.

Sarah: Sarit, you have been investigating the tunnels leading from Lebanon into Israel for years. What is the status of those tunnels? Has the IDF been able to destroy some of them?

Sarit: Hezbollah just published a video of the tunnels. I am not sure I can find it right now but I will send it to you later on and you can publish it. I will show you a different video showing Hezbollah’s strategic tunnels right now.

The person you see in the video is Imad Mughniyeh. He is the one on the left-hand side, wearing the uniform. He is an ex-commander of Hezbollah who has been dead since 2008. In the past few weeks Hezbollah published a video about its tunnels and so everybody has been talking about them but they are not new.

Hezbollah had 40 years to excavate these strategic tunnels. As you can see in the video, there are vehicles and rocket launchers there. Hezbollah excavated these tunnels years ago and they include border crossing tunnels. The IDF discovered some of them a few years ago. I want to show you the video because I think it’s important. I am going to show a video that I took from inside a tunnel. The tunnel is located in an area that is a half hour drive from my home. It is a border crossing tunnel. Everything you see in this video was made by Hezbollah, including the stairs, the electricity wires, the air conditioning and the communications. This tunnel is a kilometer long and 80 meters or 250 feet deep. It is an unbelievable project. It is different from a Hamas tunnel because there is no cement here. Hezbollah does not need cement because of the terrain. The entire tunnel was excavated in the rocks.

These tunnels are very similar to those of North Korea. North Korea and Iran actually assisted Hezbollah in constructing the tunnels. Hezbollah commanders visited North Korea in the ’80s and the ’90s. There they learned about underground warfare and they brought this knowledge back to Lebanon. We found out that a North Korean company had assisted in excavating these tunnels. They worked with an Iranian organization which was responsible for the project. Many years ago, there was a hearing in Congress on this topic. We used the materials from this hearing in a report that we published a few years ago. People in Israel did not believe us until this video came out and proved what we had known for many years. There are strategic tunnels all over Lebanon. They connect the different areas of operation of Hezbollah. There are also tunnels that cross over into Israel. The IDF is saying that they have been blocked but we do not know how many have been blocked versus those that have not yet been blocked.

Sarah: The IDF has been able to successfully destroy many of the tunnels from Rafah into Israel. Why has the IDF not been able to destroy the tunnels from Lebanon into Northern Israel?

Sarit: We have boots on the ground in Gaza but we do not have boots on the ground in Lebanon. I think the IDF destroyed some of the tunnels on August 25^th but that is not being made public. We don’t know. I do not have any data to assess how much of the underground infrastructure of Hezbollah was destroyed during the war. I can talk about their capabilities but we do not know how much of it was destroyed last month.

Sarah: Last week, the United Nations Security Council renewed the mandate for UNIFIL, passing UN Security Council resolution 2749. How effective has UNIFIL been?

Sarit: It is not effective. I would even go as far as to say that it has caused damage to the spirit of the mandate over the past 18 years. Resolution 1701 ended the previous war in Lebanon. The idea behind the resolution was to create a new order in South Lebanon and ensure there would be no illegal military presence there. There is a question about who was supposed to monitor and the terms of the resolution. UNIFIL maintains they came to assist the Lebanese and not to enforce the resolution. Their stance on this is based on an article from the resolution. On the other hand, Israel maintains UNIFIL should be doing whatever they can to prevent hostile activity in that area. That is also written in the resolution. The Lebanese army was also supposed to monitor the terms of the resolution and they failed to do so.

The bottom line is that nobody monitored or enforced the resolution. Hezbollah takes advantage of UNIFIL by using their troops as human shields. Hezbollah launches rockets from next to UNIFIL positions and puts them at risk. UNIFIL risks the lives of its soldiers for nothing. Over the years they have been intimidated by Hezbollah and their focus has been diverted to helping the population, rather than doing what I have just discussed. UNIFIL forces have not done what they were supposed to do. They did not even report on the missiles and other weapons that are now being launched against Israel. That is why I think they have done more harm than good in South Lebanon.

I do not think UNIFIL’s failure has anything to do with the anti-Israeli crowd. It is not about that. It is about fear and fear only. It is about the UNIFIL soldiers’ fear for their own lives. They have been violently blocked by Hezbollah any time they tried to accomplish something positive. They have been beaten, stoned and sometimes killed. Any force that will be part of the future solution for South Lebanon, will have to be willing to clash with Hezbollah. It does not matter if this will be an international force or the Lebanese army. The same holds true for Gaza. Any real peace keeping force must be willing to clash with these terrorist organizations. They cannot assume Hamas or Hezbollah will respect any agreement. It will not happen.

Sarah: Right. Appeasement never works. Every year, American legislators routinely earmark $300 million annually for the Lebanese armed forces. The assumption is that they provide some level of deterrence against Hezbollah. How effective have they been?

Sarit: Not effective, bottom line and I will share my opinions on this with you. Let’s put it this way, there is never a vacuum. If the United States does not fund the Lebanese army, somebody else will. I am not sure I want to see the Russian, Chinese, and Iranians supporting the Lebanese army. However, at the same time, we can assume that if things go completely crazy here, the Lebanese army will participate in the war against Israel. In that case, American bullets will be shot against IDF soldiers.

I know there are anti-tank French missiles that were provided to the Lebanese army. I do not understand why the Lebanese army needs anti-tank missiles. Against whom are they planning to launch these missiles? We should be honest in our expectations. We cannot expect the Lebanese army to fight Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not an external militia. It is a Lebanese militia. In the same family, one brother could join the Lebanese army, while the other joins Hezbollah. They will not fight each other. You cannot expect them to fight each other. However, you can demand that the Lebanese army provide some level of value and results in exchange for the funds they receive.

Sarah: We have seen pictures of Lebanese armed forces people giving Hezbollah fighters their uniforms.

Sarit: I didn’t see pictures but I saw them in person. I saw soldiers from Hezbollah and the Lebanese army standing together at the border.

Sarah: We also know that the Cub Scouts in Lebanon are being conditioned to join Hezbollah from the age of eight. We have done reports on this and it is outrageous. Can you discuss Amos Hochstein’s plan and how is it any different from UN Security Council Resolution 1701?

Sarit: Okay, first I want to provide a disclaimer. Everything I am saying has been published, especially in Lebanese media. However, we do not know what is happening behind closed doors. The leaks come mainly from Lebanese sources. Very little comes out on the subject in Hebrew and in English.

We understand that Amos Hochstein is trying to figure out some future arrangement for a ceasefire. To be honest, I think that we will need a diplomatic arrangement even if we enter into a full-scale war and eliminate Hezbollah’s capabilities in full or in part. The big debate is around what the arrangement will look like. According to the information we have seen published until now, Hochstein’s proposed agreement would degrade Resolution 1701. Resolution 1701 requires the area from the border to the Litani River to be free of illegal weapons, this area is around 25 kilometers in most cases.  We have heard that the latest talk refers to an agreement requiring 8 or 10 kilometers from the border be free of illegal weapons. Why should we accept such an agreement? I do not understand who would monitor it. It appears that Hochstein’s plan is to upgrade the Lebanese army and give it more power. There is a possibility that a new agreement would give more power to UNIFIL but I am not sure about that. Hochstein may be trying, and failing, to find a different international force to monitor the area.

As I mentioned, previously the Lebanese army is not going to clash with Hezbollah. It does not matter how much you strengthen it. I think the United States is trying to make the case that the Lebanese army can be capable of enforcing the resolution. However, that is not the question. The question is whether it is willing to enforce the resolution and to clash with Hezbollah.

Also, we understand that everyone is now saying Israel also did not respect Resolution 1701. I do not accept this and I will explain why. First, Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, and Israel is a sovereign state. Drawing parallels between sovereign states and terrorist organizations is unacceptable. Second, they are talking about marking the border. They are talking as if a land dispute is the problem between Lebanon and Israel. That is not the problem between Israel and Lebanon. Amos Hochstein is trying to resolve a land dispute after he had success with resolving the maritime dispute. The maritime dispute satisfied the Lebanese and created some sort of parity between the parties. Amos Hochstein has created a kind of equation in Lebanon. Israel withdrew from Lebanon. There was not supposed to be any land dispute because the United Nations recognized that Israel had withdrawn from Lebanon. The reservations Lebanon had with respect to the way the border was marked was in meters in most cases. This was not much of an issue except for in a few areas.

Two of those areas are areas we stand on top of, and they involve strategic problems of security. One of them is in the eastern area, the Shebaa Farms and the other is in the western area, on the seashore. If we no longer stand on top of these areas, we will not be able to see what is happening below. If you stand in either of these areas, you understand the situation very clearly.

The third contentious area is in a town called Ghajar. The United Nations marked the border between Israel and Lebanon in the middle of this town. Ghajar has 3000 people with Israeli citizenship. This town was taken from Syria in 1967. I once visited this town with my father who is Syrian. I entered the town and told one of the restaurants that I had brought my father to eat some Lebanese food. They said they cook Syrian food and not Lebanese food. They consider themselves to be Syrian. The UN drew the border between Israel and Lebanon in the middle of the town and Lebanon wants Israel to withdraw from Ghajar. What do you think Hezbollah will do to the Israeli citizens in that town if we withdraw? Hezbollah will consider them to be traitors. I don’t even want to imagine what they will do to them. So, I do not accept that Israel should withdraw from Ghajar.

Another contentious issue is the flights Israel conducts over Lebanon to gather intelligence. A terrorist organization has taken over Lebanon. We want to know where it is hiding its rockets. It is very simple. Once this terrorist organization is dismantled, we will stop flying over Lebanon.

Sarah: I mentioned the UN Security Council Resolution that was passed last week. Why do you think it did not mention Hezbollah once?

Sarit: Yeah, that’s always the case. It passed as if nothing had changed and there was no war going on. The resolution it passed this year is even worse than in previous years. However, there were some discussions which gave me some hope. I understand that they have to pass the resolution to continue funding UNIFIL’s force and then they can continue the negotiations. If they do arrive at some arrangement, they always update the resolution. The resolution is updated almost automatically every year, at the end of August. In the interim, the United Nations Security Council can vote to institute a different arrangement.

Sarah: Now it is my honor to turn the podium over to Elad Israeli, EMET’s director of research. Elad spent many years in Israeli intelligence and in the Ministry of Congressional Affairs at the Israeli embassy here in Washington.

Elad Israeli: Hi, Sarah. Hi Sarit. It is great to be here. This is my first time appearing live on an EMET webinar. It is a pleasure to become acquainted with members of our audience. I would like to address some questions from our audience. An audience member asked if IDF intelligence in Southern Lebanon is sufficient to prevent such a high number of rocket launches?

Sarit: Obviously we are not going to discuss intelligence too much on this platform but the bottom-line answer no. They are launching rockets against Israel every day. That is the reality. Since the war started, the IDF has attacked Lebanon thousands of times. South Lebanon is kind of a mirror image of Israel’s North. More than 90,000 Lebanese have left their villages in South Lebanon. There is destruction in the Southern Lebanese towns as well. They have suffered around 100 civilian casualties. This information is based on what they publish. From what I have just said, you can just understand how wide our military deployment is in South Lebanon.

Elad: If a deal in Gaza is achieved, will it free up Israeli resources to address the situation in the North, or would it tie Israel’s hands because of international pressure to de-escalate on all fronts?

Sarit: I think the answer lies in Washington.

Elad: Only Washington?

Sarit: We need Washington on our side here. It is very sad to say and I wish it was not like that. If we escalate in Lebanon, I think we need Washington on our side from the beginning of the war. I know that everybody is saying that we should make a deal in order to be free to deal with the North. I do not understand how we are going to deal with the North while we are ceasing our fire. Hamas is already recovering its capabilities in Gaza. I truly do not know what will happen if we are dealing with the North, and at the same time as we see smuggling of munitions into Gaza. It is a big question.

Elad: Yes. Do you view the Israeli preemptive strike on August 25^th as a fundamental change in Israel’s policy on the Northern front, or just a response to a specific imminent attack?

Sarit: I wanted it to be a game changer but unfortunately it was not. In order for it to be a game changer, we should have seen more attacks on a similar scale. This attack embarrassed Hezbollah and they have not retaliated. They had to lie about their failure that morning. I think we could have done more but we did not and we continued the tit-for-tat.

The past week opened a conversation that was really difficult for Israelis. It does not matter what your opinion is about the deal. We all want to see the hostages back, and we all feel that we have reached a dead end everywhere we look. This feeling is very strong. Together with the American administration, I think we will have to find a way to stop the shuffling and arrive at a resolution regarding the hostage deal. However, I think the areas of resolution should involve more than the hostage deal.

Elad: Yes. The grieving in Israel is immense. The sorrow and the anger that so many Israelis are feeling right now is unfathomable. Do you believe that Israel is effective in preventing high-quality arms from making their way from Iran to Hezbollah through Syria? Based on my past experience, I know that this is something Israel has been actively trying to prevent over the past decade or so. It seems to have been very effective in the first years. How do you assess the current situation.

Sarit: The attacks on us have resumed after a recess of about a month. Iran tried to stop us from attacking Syria by striking us in mid-April, and it failed. Israel never claims responsibility for the attacks on Syria, but we learn from Syrian sources that they are occurring. However, we do not know how effective they are in preventing arms smuggling through to Hezbollah. Munitions are clearly still being launched at us. Sometimes, the munitions are brought into Lebanon in parts and constructed there. Drones and anti-tank missiles are likely smuggled into Lebanon in full. I do not believe they are being constructed in Lebanon. In 2023, we saw anti-tank missiles with the manufacture date on them, launched at Israel. That means that the smuggling has been ongoing during the war.

Elad: Right. I have one last two-part question. The summer is coming to an end without a major Israel-Hezbollah confrontation. Do you believe that the delay means the chances of confrontation during the fall or winter season are higher or lower? That is part one of the question. Part two asks if most displaced civilians from northern Israel will agree to return to their homes before a full-on confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel takes place?

Sarit: In response to the first part of your question, I truly do not know. I do know that it is more difficult to fight in the winter. This is especially true in the Lebanese mud. It will be more difficult both for Hezbollah, and for the IDF tanks. So, it goes both ways. Gaza has different weather. The weather in the North and South of Israel is very different. The South is a desert, with few days of rain. In the North, I feel like I have a cloud above my home for three months during the winter. Lebanon is even further North from where I am. As such, it is more challenging to fight in the winter in Lebanon than in Gaza.

To answer the second part of your question, many Israelis are demanding the Israeli government put boots on the ground in Lebanon. At the very least, they are demanding additional air strikes. Many are afraid to come back to the Northern arena. I think the IDF is not publishing enough about its achievements in the North. As I said at the beginning, people will eventually come back after we reach a diplomatic arrangement. However, Israelis will not be fooled by diplomatic arrangements that do not address the mechanics of how to dismantle the military capabilities on the other side of the border. If this simple question is not dealt with in a very honest and direct way, people will be afraid to come back.

You have to understand that we have situations here where people are still paying mortgages on homes that were ruined and do not exist anymore. I believe those who can afford to live elsewhere, will not come back. What about those who cannot afford to live elsewhere? They will have to come back eventually. However, there is a huge fear that Hezbollah will carry out a massacre like that of Hamas. Hamas actually replicated the tactics of Hezbollah and not the other way around. So, we must deal with Hezbollah’s capabilities. We can no longer live with military operatives who are meters from us on the other side of the border and who you can see without binoculars. I am speaking from personal experience.

Sarah: I want to apologize to some members of our viewing audience whose questions we did not have time to address. I want to thank Lieutenant Colonel Sarit Zehavi, who is a powerhouse and a wonderful and courageous woman. Sarit’s analyses have helped many policymakers make appropriate decisions over the years. Please support Sarit’s valuable work at https://israel-alma.org/. We want to see every single one of you supporting us. Please consider attending our dinner in Washington DC on November 19^th. Again, thank you so much, Sarit.

Sarit: Thank you, and we all pray for the hostages coming back home alive. Thank you.