Something Has Changed Here

Something Has Changed Here

By Sarah N. Stern

Sitting here in Israel, I ask myself if this is the same Middle East it was before October 7, 2023. Yes, the war that was waged on Israel on seven fronts continues into its 17th month, and at least 59 hostages are still not home, and many are dead.

However, something else has changed.

Although still a threat, Hezbollah has been severely neutered.  On September 27, 2024, the Israeli Air Force sent a squadron of F-151 planes, dropping more than 80 bombs. The body of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Commander-in-Chief, was found lying in the rubble the next day. Also eliminated by the Israeli forces were Ali Karaki, the commander of Hezbollah’s southern front, and Abbas Niforoushan, the Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The real display of Israel’s power came a few weeks earlier, on September 17^th and 18^th, with the blowing up of thousands of Hezbollah-owned bellboys and pagers. This eliminated Ibrahim Aqil, the Commander-in-Chief of Hezbollah’s unique elite unit, the Radwan Force.

Israeli fighters in Lebanon have entered and removed dozens of meters of underground tunnels in southern Lebanon, many lying under children’s bedrooms, replete with RPG’s, Kalashnikovs, missile launchers, grenades and explosives.

There is still a threat from Hezbollah, but they are now a mere shadow of the fighting force they once were.

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad remain active in the Gaza Strip. During the last 17 months, despite their enormous losses, Hamas has still recruited between 12,000 and 23,000 new fighters. Prior to the war, Hamas had approximately 30,000 fighters, but the IDF claims that approximately one third of them have been eliminated.

That does not mean that the fighting in Gaza is even remotely over.

Fatah, otherwise known as the Palestinian Authority, remains a huge problem. According to Itamar Marcus, Founder and President of Palestinian Media Watch, the United States, and many other countries agree that the Hamas terror organization must be removed, (after the war), there is disagreement as to who should replace Hamas. Mahmoud Abbas, with the backing of some European counties, has demanded that the administration be given to the Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah), while the security control be given to the Palestinian Authority Security Forces (PASF).

However, as Itamar explains, “Not only has the PASF failed to play an active role in its task of fighting terrorism, it plays an active role in Palestinian terrorism against Israelis. Senior officers in the PASF simultaneously have senior roles in the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, an internationally designed terror organization. Moreover, when these PA and Fatah terrorists have been killed, they have been honored by the PA with military funerals, Both the PA and Fatah openly and proudly showcase the terror activities of the PASF members, glorifying their conflicting roles with praise. As Mahmoud Abbas Fatah has said, “By day, (the PA) Security Forces, by night self-sacrificing fighters.”

In a publication by Itamar Marcus, “Terrorists in Uniform” he outlines how scores of members of Fatah and the PA Security Forces work simultaneously for the Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade. Indeed, according to the Spokesman for the PASF, “The highest number of martyrs and prisoners is from the Security Forces members.”

We also see weapons smuggled into Judea/Samaria (the West Bank) from Iran and through Jordan.

Looking north, we see an unstable Syria, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, a man who has recently changed his army fatigues of Al Qaeda into a suit and a tie. We see the emergence of a civil war between the Alawites and the Jihadists. We also see clashes between Lebanese tribal groups and the Syrian Armed Forces in the Bakaa Valley. And we worry abou our Kurdish friends.

This weekend, the United States launched massive attacks against the Iranian backed Houthis in Sanaa. The Houthis have launched attacks against American and Israeli ships in the Red Sea, and have, mostly unsuccessfully, launched drones against Israeli cities.  The Houthis are vowing to continue.  President Trump says, “They will have hell to pay”.

And it is the Israelis that are bracing for a counter- attack on their civilian infrastructure.

Looking to the East, the looming threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb remains. We see Iran with thousands of gas centrifuges spinning. According to the International Atomic Energy Administration (IAEA), they already possess enough highly enriched uranium for 6 nuclear bombs.  On October 26, 2024, the Israeli Air Force carried out an elegant airstrike on Iran’s Parchin nuclear facility, destroying sophisticated equipment used to make explosives around their uranium enrichment, rendering it very difficult to replace and rebuild.

What, therefore, has changed?

Sitting around a table with a group of young soldiers and their families I learn that the illusions of their parents, of Oslo, of the 2005 Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and of an instant peace with their neighbors are extinguished. Wishful thinking, they say, is not a policy.

Despite the tremendous costs on the individual level, they know that Israel is here to stay.

There is a feeling of resolution among the people here. They know in their core that this is their only land. That it is worth fighting for and worth making the ultimate sacrifice for.

Sarah N. Stern is Founder and President of EMET, a think tank and policy center on Capitol Hill that specializes in the Middle East.