The Tides are Turning

(October 1, 2024/ JNS)

Starting with the explosion of thousands of beepers and pagers of Hezbollah members in Lebanon on September 17^th, and with the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah on Friday along with practically all of the highest-ranking members of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, Israel is once again reclaiming its vaunted military might that seemed to have atrophied on October 7^th.  This might constitute a sea change in the Iranian grip on the Lebanese political landscape and could have ramifications for the Islamic Republic of Iran, throughout the Middle East, and possibly beyond.

As I write these words, I have just learned that the Israeli Air Force has attacked the Iranian-backed Houthi bases in Yemen, concentrating on military bases, the Hodeidah port, and its power plants. Shipping companies throughout the world ought to express profound gratitude to the state of Israel. For it was the Houthis, who have not only launched attacks into central Israel but onto the world’s shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

The confirmed death of Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah has sparked waves of ecstasy and anger throughout the Middle East, and many corners of the world. There is absolutely no doubt that the elimination of the head of the Iranian-backed terrorist group has sown destruction and death for far too many innocent people, including Americans, French, Argentinians and many in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.

Americans must not forget that it was Hezbollah that was responsible for the death of 241 US marines, as they were asleep in their beds, in Beirut on October 23, 1983. Again, it was  Hezbollah who was responsible for a suicide car bombing that killed 63 people, including 32 Lebanese and 17 Americans, including 8 CIA employees, and an American journalist on April 18, 1983. And on September 20, 1984, a Hezbollah truck bombing on the US Embassy in Beirut murdered 23 people.

It is little wonder, therefore, that President Biden, in a written statement, addressing Nasrallah’s demise, stated, “His death from an Israeli airstrike is a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians. The United States fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups.”

Yet, President Biden continued trying to thread a needle with equivocations, saying, “Ultimately our aim is to de-escalate the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon through diplomatic means.”

Unfortunately, in the Middle East, wars have never been won through diplomacy. The constraints that United States has constantly placed on Israel since the days of the Sinai campaign, and throughout the Oslo years, culminating in the 2005 Gaza withdrawal have made the Jewish state far more vulnerable.

In the Idlib Provence, (the northwest corner of Syria), Sunni Muslims  and Kurds have been taking to the streets, celebrating the killing of Hassan Nasrallah. We have to remember that Iranian backers—the same backers of Hezbollah, supported the murderous reign of Bashar al Assad. The brutality of Assad regime during the 2011 Syrian War, with over a half a million dead, and 5 million refugees, can never be forgotten. We have constantly seen the paradigm of “land for peace” deteriorate into “land for war.” And it has been the Israelis, the Palestinians, the Lebanese Sunnis and Christians and the people of the region who have suffered most from this.

While Israel maintained a presence in Gaza prior to 2005, the horrific events of October 7^th could not have been possible. Similarly, on the Lebanese border, despite UN security council resolution 1701 in 2006, both UNIFIL and the Lebanese Armed Forces have proven totally impotent carrying out the resolution and in dealing with Hezbollah. Relying on foreign forces for Israel to be able to maintain safety and security for its civilian population is a prescription for catastrophe. Because of its dependency on the United States for weapons shipments, Israel has been constrained up until now.

However, at this moment, Israel is facing an existential war, and the Israelis are not willing to witness yet another blood bath, similar to October 7^th.  According to Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, every nation has the primary responsibility to protect the lives of its civilian population. It is as though the 1948 War to eliminate the state of Israel has been ongoing with a few, short, self-deluding hiatuses in between.  Those days are now over.

Israel is turning a page and regaining its military deterrence. Hopefully, we will be able to soon see that the people of Israel can once more live in safety and security, can strike out renewed ties with its Sunni neighbors, based on “peace through strength,” and not through the frailties and delusions of appeasement.

Sarah N. Stern is Founder and President of the Endowment for Middle East Truth, EMET, a think tank and policy institute that specializes in the Middle East, and meets regularly with US Congressmen and Senators.