Why Are We Allowing This to Happen?

This morning, we awoke to the news that Iran has unveiled a new ballistic missile system, the Qassem Basir, which the Iranians claim has a range of 1300 kilometers, and can bypass the US THAAD missile and Arrow Defense missile programs.  Iran can use the Shiite communities within Iraq and Jordan to attack American or Israeli bases. The Iranian Defense Minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, said he had “no problem” with their neighbors, “they are our brothers.” “But”, he added, “American bases are our targets.”

This comes the day after the Houthis launched a missile that got through Israeli air defenses in the area around Ben Gurion airport. The Houthis have vowed to do this again and again, potentially cutting off all air transport to the state of Israel.

Since October 7, 2023, Iran has been in a much more compromised position than it had been and might be desperate for something to revitalize its failing image in the region. Iran’s “ring of fire”, its development of its multilateral war utilizing its terrorist proxies, has not entirely withered on the vine, although the lion’s share of thanks should go to the many operational successes of the state of Israel and the courageous men and women of the IDF and their reserve forces, that continuously put their lives on hold to serve their country.

Iran had failed to protect its greatest asset, the former Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad. Thousands of Iranian-backed resistance fighters have perished within Syria. Although Bashir Assad’s Iranian-backed domination has withered, Syria’s controlling government, Hyatt Tahrir al-Sham, might yet constitute a further grave threat to Israel because of  the character of its leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa and his deeply entrenched Al Qaeda and ISIS roots. He also has profited from the backing of the highly antisemitic backing of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is a strong advocate of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Turkey’s Erdogan has gone so far as to compare Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler. There is a concern that Erdogan would like to replace the borders of Turkey to the former borders of the Ottoman Empire. Bashir Assad’s fall to al-Sharaa has opened the Syrian territory to become a Mideastern ally of Turkey, which is now building up a dependency with Ankara and a Turkish presence and semi-sovereignty within Syria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called Jerusalem “a red line for Muslims”. In front of a convention of The Justice and Development Party last December, the AKP delegates shouted in unison “Jerusalem is ours, and shall remain so”.   President Erdogan responded with, “Inshallah. Inshallah ”, (God willing.) “We will not leave Jerusalem to a child killer country.”

   Meanwhile, these are tough times for Hezbollah. Thanks to Israel’s miraculous “pager” operation of September 2024, much of its leadership has been decimated. The supply chains through Syria to Lebanon have been cut off, and much of it has retreated away from southern Lebanon.  Much of Hezbollah has retreated to north of the Litani River, in accordance with the 2006 UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

Yet, as Lieutenant Commander Sarit Zehavi said at the JNS Conference last week, Israel must maintain a presence in both Lebanon and Syria to prevent the further building up of Hezbollah and from armaments from flowing into their hands.

And although 22 of the 24 brigades of Hamas have been decimated, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are regnant ideologies. They must be replaced immediately with non-UNRWA related schools, Imams and new textbooks.

Although we have heard that “Iran must never get a bomb on my watch” though the words of four successive administrations, the  most distressing aspect of all of this news is that Iran has never, for one iota, ceased its work on its nuclear enrichment program. Iran now, according to the last report of the International Atomic Energy Administration, (IAEA) possesses 274.8 kilograms, (605 .8 pounds) of highly enriched uranium, at the 60 per cent level.  For them to go to the 90 per cent level necessary for a bomb, they are already 96 per cent of the way there.

Some experts have estimated that they now have enough highly enriched uranium for 17 bombs.

The snapback sanctions of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which is the foundational basis for the entire JCPOA, have yet to be triggered. They will expire in October of 2025. France, Germany and Great Britain (“the E3”) still maintain the status to trigger the snapback sanctions but have been reluctant to do so.

While Iranian Foreign Minister Aggas Aragchi says their nuclear enrichment is “for peaceful purposes only”, they would only need 3 to 5 per cent for peaceful purposes.

Yet, the talks drag on and Iran has a new ballistic missile program. Why are we letting the world pull the wool over our eyes?

Sarah N. Stern is Founder and President of EMET, a Middle East focused think tank and policy institute.