Aftermath of the Iran Nuclear Deal

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Soon, the P5+1 powers are expected to announce the successful completion of a nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran. This Iran nuclear deal threatens the security of the United States, the security of our ally Israel and the security of the entire Middle East region. For a regime that dubs the United States “The Great Satan” and consistently calls for the destruction of our ally Israel, any agreement should be taken with the utmost caution. Iran’s behavior, terms, as well as their history, demonstrate that this regime cannot be trusted.

For the duration of the negotiations, Iran has been unwilling to concede to basic requests by members of the negotiating party: allowing sanction relief to be phased out over time and refusal to anytime-anywhere inspections. The Ayatollah has continuously said he will refuse access to military sites, a requirement that should be a deal breaker. From the beginning, the closure of any site was out of question. One such site, Fordo, is an underground, fortified facility carved into a mountain. This facility will consequently remain open and operational. Arak, the name of the Iranian town that houses a heavy water reactor (used to produce radioactive plutonium) will be allowed to remain open. Arak became operational in 2006 and continues to produce radioactive plutonium despite repeated resolutions passed by the United Nations to shut down the plant. Their blatant refusal to adhere to these perspectives should be worrisome to all those involved.

Furthermore, the breakout time (the time required to acquire enough material for one weapon) still hovers around one year. Iran will be able to keep a stockpile of 5,000 centrifuges. Centrifuges, in general, are a key component of the nuclear process and are used to enrich uranium intended for nuclear weapons. To compare, reports indicate that Pakistan was able to test and produce a nuclear weapon with the limited capacity of only 3,000 centrifuges. The fact alone that Iran will simply be able to continue to enrich uranium at all is perplexing.

There remain several other aspects of this Iran nuclear deal that are simply appalling. For one, the bloodthirsty Iranian regime reportedly will receive nuclear support and information from the P5+1 in exchange for cooperation. If advanced, sensitive information is given to Iran about nuclear technology it will not stay in Tehran. The Islamic Republic has had longstanding relations with North Korea as well as regional ally Syria. It would only be a matter of time before this technology is shared as per their relation agreements. Nuclear cooperation between North Korea and Iran has been ongoing and this deal would benefit both nations.

As a known state-sponsor of terrorism, the $150 billion that the Iranian regime will receive from this deal will only reinforce growing Iranian power and influence in the region. This money will not be used for development, education, or welfare programs or other social programs as an effort to combat Iran’s atrocious human rights record. According to a report issued by the United Nations, the ruthless regime in Iran executed 753 civilians in 2014, about an average of two per day.

Funds will be used to support the continual build up and backing of Iranian proxy armies throughout the Middle East. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s missile stockpile, now numbering in the tens of thousands, will advance technologically and numerically. Most of these weapons remain pointed directly at Israel. In war-torn Iraq, Iranian supported Shi’a militias are hungry to fill the power vacuums presently filled by the Islamic State. In Yemen, Houthi rebels supported by Iran will press for continuing violence against Yemen’s existing government. And in Syria, Iran has continued to support the embattled Bashar al-Assad regime, a government that is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians. The threat of violence will be perpetual and the threat of war constant as other countries will look to protect themselves. If Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states increasingly feel threatened, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is not so farfetched. This doomsday scenario could consequently become reality and nonproliferation a fabrication.

A significant aspect missing from the deal relates to Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. Previous US treaties, including those that were signed in the Cold War Era with the Soviet Union (who WAS a nuclear weapon state) revolved around these missile systems and delivery system. Specifically, these treaties worked to limited number of launch vehicles. Long-range missiles, ICBM’s and long range bombers were targeted. A nuclear weapon itself is one thing, the vehicle to deliver it another. Any treaty needs to address both of these aspects otherwise it cannot be effective.

When this deal becomes finalized, the world will be a very different place. All norms and promises of international law, cooperation and agreement, including the Non-Proliferation Treaty, might as well become nonexistent. And as a result, the United States will lose credibility on a global scale. Moving on, we must always remember that promises are only words, not actions. Only time will tell.

Originally published at the Wonk Report:

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The Endowment for Middle East Truth
Founded in 2005, The Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET) is a Washington, D.C. based think tank and policy center with an unabashedly pro-America and pro-Israel stance. EMET (which means truth in Hebrew) prides itself on challenging the falsehoods and misrepresentations that abound in U.S. Middle East policy.

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