Disclaimer: This transcript is an edited version version of a transcript created using AI technology and may not reflect 100% accuracy.
The video can be found here.
Sarah Stern: Good afternoon. Welcome to another topical and timely EMET webinar. Last week, three hostages, Romi Gonen, Emily Damari and Doron Steinbacher, were returned to the arms of their loved ones. On Saturday, Hamas released our four female soldiers, Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy and Liri Albag. They abducted the four young women from their lookout positions near Gaza and released them in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. G-d willing, 20-year-old Arbel Yehoud, 21-year-old Agam Berger and one other hostage will be released tomorrow.
Israel continues to face many national security challenges. Yesterday, about 200,000 Gazans moved back to northern Gaza. Many of them were filmed flashing victory signs. On Sunday and Monday, Lebanese Shiites streamed southward, holding Hezbollah flags and posters of the late Sheikh Nasrallah. This is in contravention of the ceasefire agreement Amos Hochstein brokered between Israel and Lebanon. The LAF was supposed to disarm Hezbollah and ensure they remained north of the Litani River. In light of Hezbollah’s contraventions of the terms of the ceasefire, it was extended to February 18th and Israel was given more time to withdraw its forces from Lebanon.
Of course, Israel’s most important national security concern is the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb. We know the Iranians are close to acquiring nuclear weapons and that Russia and China are supporting their efforts in this regard. On January 21, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin claimed Russia is continuing to aid Iran’s civil nuclear work despite sanctions and pressure. At the same time, reports indicate that China has been supplying Tehran with a key missile propellant ingredient. This means the Chinese entities involved are subject to American sanctions aimed at degrading Iranian weapons programs.
We should not forget the Houthis. Until last week, they were firing missiles into Israel. Now they are attacking ships bound for Israel in the Red Sea.
So, Israel continues fighting a war on multiple fronts. We are honored to have the esteemed Brigadier General Amir Avivi to discuss this with us today. He is a respected voice in national security circles in Israel and worldwide. Amir, please begin by discussing the national security implications of releasing so many Palestinian terrorists in exchange for our hostages.
Amir: Okay. I want to start by saying something optimistic. I want to reassure people that Israel intends to win this war decisively and we are not going to give up on any of our war goals. Hamas will be destroyed and we are going to get all our hostages back. We are going to create a reality in Gaza that will never again support a terror army in Gaza.
Israel is not giving up any of its war goals, but we have gone through an extremely difficult period that started with the huge shock of October 7th. We watched the IDF fighting in Gaza and saw how we dismantled Hamas militarily. Then came the war with Hezbollah which was like a six-day war in some senses. It was a huge win and a big relief because everyone was very worried about the consequences of going to war with Hezbollah. We knew they had endless missiles, rockets and other weapons. We managed to bring the organization on its knees in two weeks. Everyone was ecstatic and happy. Unfortunately, it now feels like we have moved backward and something is changing.
We have a ceasefire in Gaza and we are getting our hostages back. Israel’s obligation to bring back the hostages is a clear and critical goal of the war. At the same time, the ceasefire provides Hamas the opportunity to re-organize. We are no longer preventing the Gazans from returning to the northern part of Gaza. Many cowardly Hamas soldiers fled to the humanitarian zone and hid there during the war. Suddenly, they are putting on their clean terrorist uniforms and showing them off. We can be sure that cowards did not fight the IDF and they are not very big heroes. We are also transferring a great deal of humanitarian aid into Gaza and we are releasing many of their terrorists. There is obviously a huge downside to the deal we agreed to but we need to get our hostages back. This is essential for Israeli society and, probably, for the entire Jewish world.
As you mentioned, the 60-day ceasefire ended in Lebanon and Hezbollah tested our red lines by trying to send their people back south. The IDF reacted by shooting and killing about 22 terrorists and injuring many others. I visited the North this week and saw how the IDF leveled the towns along the border that had become terror hubs for Hezbollah. We face many of our own challenges in rebuilding our own towns and bringing back our people in Israel’s North.
At this time, our battle to destroy Hamas is on pause. This may create the perception that we will fail to achieve the goals of the war. It may appear as if the war with Hamas is going to stop and we did not really win. I want to make it clear that we are in the midst of a long campaign. The IDF is training and preparing the plans to go back and fight in Gaza. In the interim, however, we were able to move many IDF units to Judea and Samaria where we launched a big attack on the terror infrastructure in the Samaria area, in Jenin and in Tulkarem.
This is a long campaign and we should look at the overall picture. We began with a large-scale attack on Gaza and severely reduced Hamas’ military capacities. After 10 months, we were able to shift the center of gravity from Gaza to Lebanon. We attacked Lebanon and degraded Hezbollah dramatically. We took them back around 20 years and this caused Syria to fall. Now we are moving our ground forces to the mountains of Judah and Samaria, and we are attacking from there. So, Israel is on the attack.
At the same time, the center of gravity of the Air Force and our military industries is pivoting toward Iran. We are getting ready to attack Iran. All of this is part of the process. We have been fighting for a year and four months and we need to re-equip and organize our munitions. President Trump released all the munitions, bulldozers and other equipment we need, and that is very, very helpful to us. So, we are not wasting time by agreeing to a ceasefire. We are getting our hostages back. We are building our forces, equipping them and receiving munitions. We are planning the next step with Iran and the Houthis and we are operating in Judea and Samaria.
We know there is a meeting coming up between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump. President Trump’s short invitation to Netanyahu reveals three important points. One: Netanyahu is the first leader Trump invited to visit the White House. Two: Trump wants to discuss peace agreements with Netanyahu. Three: Trump wants to discuss how to counter our adversaries with Netanyahu. The President is sending a message. He is signaling that we are the most important country for him to meet with. He is also letting us know he is looking to us to help him counter the Chinese, Russian and the Iranians.
We want to conclude regional and global peace agreements with Saudi Arabia and other moderate Sunni states and we need to counter the radical Shia and Sunni axes. It is not sufficient to counter the Shia axis and to deal with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran because we can see what is happening with the Sunnis in Syria and Afghanistan. As such, it is clear, we need to deal with ISIS, Al Qaeda and other radical Sunni groups. President Trump is serious when he talks about relocating Gazans out of Gaza. It is not a joke and big things are going to happen.
We want to get to the point where we have all our hostages back. There is a big question about what will happen at the end of stage one of the deal with Hamas. They are supposed to release 33 hostages during stage one and we need a plan to pressure them to release all those that remain thereafter. The second phase of the agreement states that Hamas must release all the hostages, lay down their weapons and get out of Gaza. Hamas needs to be incentivized to comply with the terms of the agreement.
President Trump said that if the hostages were not returned, there would be ‘hell to pay’. This phrase will be much more relevant for the second phase of the ceasefire deal than for the first. We need to translate what Trump means by the phrase ‘hell to pay’. ‘Hell’ could refer to military attacks. It could refer to withholding humanitarian aid and to building a humanitarian bubble near our border. This would mean that Hamas will be completely disconnected from Gazan society. ‘Hell’ could also refer to moving all the Gazans to Egypt or to Jordan.
The Israeli government is currently conducting discussions covering the possibilities I mentioned. I talk with the army, the government and the Ministry of Defense. I spent three hours with the Ministry of Defense recently and the message was crystal clear, Israel is going to win decisively on all fronts. We are not going to stop until we reach total victory, no matter how long it takes. We have to reach the goals of war. I would add that this is a period of time where we have to stick to Zionism, not cynicism. This is not the time for cynicism. This is the time to stand strong, fight and win this war.
Sarah Stern: Wonderful. President Sisi and King Abdullah II are not very happy at the thought of accepting the Gazans into their countries. This is especially true for Jordan where the population is already 70% Palestinian. The Palestinians have been a destabilizing force in every country they have inhabited. That said, America gives $1.8 billion a year to Egypt and $1.3 billion to Jordan. Do you think we could use that aid as leverage if some of the Gazans are willingly to leave Gaza?
Amir: Definitely. Egypt and Jordan are both dealing with severe economic problems and this may make them susceptible to both threats and incentives. We can promise them more money and more support. Egypt does not necessarily need to absorb all the Palestinians from Gaza but it does need to open the border and let them leave Gaza. Most of the Gazans want to emigrate. They do not necessarily want to relocate to Egypt, but they want to get out of Gaza. When the Egyptian border was open at the beginning of the war, 300,000 Gazans left Gaza. People should not be locked into an area and should be able to leave if they want to. The most crucial step is to open the border with Egypt and let people leave Gaza. It is their business where they go afterwards.
During the war with Ukraine, eight million Ukrainians left Ukraine. Nobody locked them inside Ukraine. So, I think there will definitely be pressure on Egypt to open the border. I am not sure about Jordan. I agree that accepting Palestinian in Jordan might destabilize the regime there. That is not the case for Egypt. Egypt is a country with more than 100 million Egyptians. I do not see how a million Palestinians will be able to destabilize Egypt. We will have to wait and see what happens but the important thing is to understand that Israel and America are completely aligned in their understanding. They agree that Hamas cannot remain in Gaza. One way or another this entity needs to go and any future buildup of a similar force in the Gaza Strip will not be an option.
The hostage deal obviously has repercussions which make things a bit more difficult in the war against Hamas. That said, we are still controlling Philadelphia and the Gazan perimeter. Hamas can only build itself up with the resources it currently has inside Gaza. We destroyed many of their capabilities and there is only so much they can do in a month. Israel is preparing to launch a very decisive attack on them once the deal ends. This may occur during the first phase or during the second phase but bringing back the hostages is a clear goal of the war and we need to achieve it. So, we need to balance the goals. At certain points, we prioritize destroying Hamas and at others, we prioritize bringing the hostages. Achieving both is still part of the overall plan. It is not one or the other.
Sarah Stern: I know that President Trump has released the 200,000-pound ton bunker buster bombs. Are they sufficient for Israel to succeed in an attack on Iran or do we need more?
Amir: Everything that President Trump is releasing, is very much needed and will be a big help for us. At the same time, we are moving quickly toward self-production, the ability of Israel to produce its own weaponry. Our industries are growing very fast and they are producing more and more capabilities for the air force, the artillery and the armored forces. They are producing explosives and every other type of munition that Israel needs. While we are continuously degrading the capacity of our enemies, we are dramatically growing our own industries. The intent is for Israel to sustain the war and be able to rely on itself in the long term. We need to be able to defend ourselves by ourselves and not be dependent on any other country.
Sarah Stern: Israel has suffered a very long war already. Reservists have been called back into miluim time and time again. What is morale like in the army and in the reserves?
Amir: The morale is amazing. Our soldiers’ morale is very high because they feel like they are winning every encounter. The reserves have worked very hard and their absence from home has been very difficult for them and for their families. Overall, however, everybody is highly motivated and they understand the importance of the war. I think that one of our challenges is getting everybody to serve, including the ultra-Orthodox and others who have not served in the past. We cannot allow ourselves a reality where some people are not serving. We need to be able to build an army big enough to be able to sustain long wars and also enable people to continue with their everyday lives. We have reservists who have been serving for 200 or 250 days a year, and they have jobs and families to take care of. It has been a very challenging year.
As an aside, prioritizing the ceasefire and the hostages gives our soldiers time to rest, reorganize and regroup and that is part of the big picture.
Sarah Stern: Hezbollah appears to be ignoring the ceasefire agreement Amos Hochstein brokered and UN Security Council Resolution 1701. As I mentioned, they are returning to Southern Lebanon with their yellow flags and their pictures of the late Hassan Nasrallah. What is your assessment of the situation on Israel’s northern border?
Amir: When Israel retaliated against Hezbollah, we did not set a goal of destroying Hezbollah completely. This is because the complete destruction of Hezbollah would mean conquering all of Lebanon and we do not want that. We did hit them really hard and we are now enforcing the ceasefire. Israel has full freedom of operation all over Lebanon and we attack anywhere Hezbollah tries to rebuild. We coordinate with the US and France and Lebanon, but if we see a buildup, we demand they dismantle it. If they fail to do so, we attack immediately. During the course of the ceasefire, we have killed more than 65 Hezbollah terrorists in different locations in Lebanon.
Since the fall of Assad in Syria, Hezbollah is facing bigger challenges rebuilding its organization. Syria is now under the control of radical Sunnis who are the sworn enemies of Hezbollah. The Sunnis are blocking any smuggling from Syria to Lebanon and Israel controls the air and the sea. That said, we need an international effort to properly dismantle Hezbollah in accordance with Resolution 1559 which states that Lebanon needs to be a sovereign country with one army and with no militias. All the militias, including Hezbollah, need to be dismantled. Resolution 1559, requires the Syrians get out of Lebanon and not influence events there.
The international effort to dismantle Hezbollah would need to be coordinated with the Lebanese government and it would be a process. I think that with Trump as president, dismantling Hezbollah might actually be viable. In the interim, Israel needs to stay strong, continue to degrade them and push for intervention from the US and Europe to impose Resolution 1559. We do not know if Hezbollah will be properly dismantled but we do know that dealing effectively with Iran will play a major role in this. We understand that dealing effectively with Hezbollah, Houthis and other militias, requires us to cut the head of the snake and that snake is Iran.
We need to attack Iran and we are preparing for it. That said, it would be much better if the US was to lead the attack. I think it is time that the US shows it is willing to use its power. It is impossible to build global deterrence without being willing to fight under any circumstance. It would not be smart for the US to challenge the Russians directly. The Iranians are the weak link and we need to hit them hard and together with the US. We could launch a pinpoint strike on them and destroy their nuclear military capabilities. This would create global deterrence and impact both China and Russia. It will change the world and it is the right place to show power. We already proved Iran is a paper tiger. We already demonstrated that we can send 100 airplanes, destroy all their air defenses, attack their nuclear sites and return home safely. The U.S. army and CENTCOM can use their strategic bombers and other capabilities and coordinate with Israel to hit Iran really, really hard.
Sarah Stern: We have received some excellent questions from our audience. The first asks why there is no pressure from the American government on Qatar? We know Qatar is a very wealthy country and we have an airbase there but the Qataris have been enabling terrorism. They fund the antisemitic and anti-Israel Al Jazeera network. Why do we not pressure Qatar?
Amir: I think we should pressure Qatar. Qatar is the Muslim Brotherhood and it is Hamas. Hamas and Qatar are the same thing. I think it is important that the administration realizes how dangerous Qatar is and takes action on their infiltration of American universities and American politics. They are spending huge amounts of money to change America and they are a threat to America and to American values. It is time that America deals with Qatar. We should remember that Qatar and Turkey are part of the Sunni radical axis and are not members of the moderate Sunni axis including Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Indonesia.
Sarah Stern: Turkey is a big danger, especially to the Kurdish minority in Syria. Could we exert any pressure on Turkey? Erdogan is certainly no lover of Israel and has embraced Hamas.
Amir: Turkey is a NATO member and that means the US does have leverage over them. It will be interesting to see how President Trump builds his strategy as regards Turkey. They are trying to expand their influence in the Middle East, in Libya and in other places. They are building their military and they are becoming a very dangerous country. This is something the US needs to take into account. Israel is watching what Turkey is doing on the Syrian border very carefully. We are making sure that Turkey does not build up the radical Sunnis in Syria in a way that will endanger us.
Sarah Stern: What are your thoughts on Ahmad Shara Muhammad Al Julani? Do you think he is dissembling to gain the trust of the West? How much of a danger is he?
Amir: Al Julani is a very radical person but he is also sophisticated. Right now, he understands that he needs relief from sanctions and funds to build Syria’s economy. However, in the long run, his plans coincide with those of other radical Islamists. We need to be very aware of who we are dealing with. We need to keep our eyes open and ensure he is not able to build capabilities that endanger us.
Sarah Stern: Exactly. We have another question from the audience. If the Gazans were to move to Egypt or Jordan, they would still be living on Israel’s borders. It is likely they would create volatility and endanger Israel from there. Would it make sense for them to be moved further away to somewhere like Indonesia or other places that have been discussed?
Amir: Yeah, obviously the further the better. I think moving a significant number of Gazans to another country would create considerable deterrence, irrespective of which country it is. Transferring the population would send a crystal-clear message that there is a price to pay for massacring 1200 people, taking hostages and committing other atrocities. That said, we will have to wait and see what plan is actually viable.
Sarah Stern: Amir, your voice is an important one in this discussion and we need to amplify what you are saying around the world and especially in the Jewish community. As the war has dragged on, support for Israel has atrophied. People do not fully understand that the state of Israel is facing an existential risk and all Jews are at risk from the antisemitism raging across the world. I know your time is limited but I am so grateful to you for sharing your Zionist message with us. We all have to continue to support Israel every way we can. Please support Amir’s work at Israel’s Defense and Security Forum (IDSF). Also, please continue to support our work at https://emetonline.org/. We advocate for the truth on Capitol Hill every day. We were the initiators of the Anti-Semitism Awareness Act which has been introduced in the Senate and looks like it will pass. Unfortunately, the ICC sanctions bill was defeated in the Senate by the Democrats but we intend to keep working on it. Amir, I know your time is limited. I cannot thank you enough for everything that you’re doing for Israel and the Jewish people.
Amir: My pleasure.
Sarah Stern: Thank you. Bye.
Amir: Thank you very much. Bye.
[END]
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