Taking the Temperature in Tehran

This weekend, in the north of Tehran, many women engaged in quiet acts of defiance against their regime. They went out publicly, without their hijabs, their hair flowing and attended a rock concert, swinging, singing and swaying to the music.

In any other country, this would be commonplace, but in Iran, this constitutes an act of rebellion.

Iranian women have noticed that the same restrictions that led to the death of the 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman, Mahsa Amani, (as well as countless others), within the “Women- Life- Freedom Movement” have begun to be somewhat relaxed. For these women, the simple act of attending a concert without a hijab was not just about enjoying music—it was a reclaiming of public space and personal autonomy. Their visible defiance resonated with many others, inspiring conversations about individual rights and the meaning of freedom in everyday life.

Yet, AI surveillance cameras remain in place, tracking women who do not wear their hair covered, or their hijabs.  The state still maintains the mandatory hijab law, Article 638 of the Islamic Penal Code, and the “morality police”.

While the authorities attempted to suppress the event and intimidate attendees, the women remained resolute, refusing to be silenced or forced back into conformity. Their presence at the concert was a powerful statement, not only of resistance but also of solidarity with others seeking change. Despite the risks involved, these women are quietly challenging social norms and government authority, demonstrating remarkable courage. Their actions signify a growing movement that seeks greater personal freedom and equality within Iranian society.

Domestically, there might be the slightest modicum of improvement, at least within urban settings. However, in the foreign policy arena, there is not much change in Ayatollah’s strategy. The land bridge stretching from Tehran to Baghdad to Damascus, Beirut and the Mediterranean now has a major clink in its armor. Syria is under the control of a Sunni strongman, Ahmed al Sharaa, (which is replete with its own sectarian violence and human rights concerns, against Druze, Alawites, Kurds and Christians).

This shift in Syria’s leadership has complicated Iran’s regional ambitions, disrupting established alliances and creating new uncertainties for the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” The changing dynamics have forced Tehran to reconsider its approach, as it faces both internal dissent and external challenges to its influence.

According to satellite imagery, the damage done by the combined Israeli and US attacks to the Natanz and Fordow nuclear plants last June,  can be rebuilt. Last Thursday, Rafael Grossi, the director of the International Atomic Energy Administration (IAEA) said that it was his opinion that Iran does not now possess nuclear weapons, but that “scientific knowledge cannot be destroyed”, and that “Last June, we witnessed unbelievable attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites. The JCPOA, which was under IAEA supervision, was gradually abandoned, leading to a series of confrontations. We are now trying to rebuild trust, because without strict inspections, trust cannot be restored.”

As of today, Iran still has not allowed the IAEA nuclear inspectors in. In early October, Great Britain, France, and Germany triggered the “snapback sanctions”, and in response to that, Iran declared that the inspections agreement was “null and void”, and together with Russia and China, Iran notified the IAEA that the mandate for reporting Iranian nuclear activities has “officially expired.”

Although there is an awakening within a certain element within Iran, this has not disturbed the reigning mullah’s overall nuclear ambitions, nor the export of its radical Shiite theology through Hezbollah. Much of this activity sits directly under our noses, in the tri-border areas of Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil, and Boliva, Peru and Chili. There, Hezbollah heavily engages in “Dawa” (conversion activities), money laundering and drug trafficking.

While moments of defiance and resistance, such as what we witnessed this weekend, demonstrate the resilience of Iranian civil society, longstanding institutional barriers and entrenched power structures continue to restrict progress. The interplay between hope and repression is evident in both the daily lives of citizens and the broader geopolitical maneuvers of the Iranian government. This interaction between domestic political activism, modest, incremental change and internal repressive pressures as well as the exporting of autocratic 7^th century rulings, is shaping a complex landscape, leaving the future of Iran’s policies very uncertain.

As civil society pushes for incremental reform, the government continues to respond with force and surveillance, creating an atmosphere where progress is met with persistent resistance. Nevertheless, the courage shown by individuals in defying oppressive norms signals a slow but meaningful shift in public consciousness toward greater demands for freedom and accountability.

Sarah N. Stern is Founder and President of the Endowment for Middle East Truth, (EMET).